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PENN

PENN EntertainmentC
Nasdaq / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q2 Retail revenue, 34.4% Retail segment adjusted EBITDAR margin, and improving Interactive results provide a credible path to better cash generation if new properties sustain their early performance. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06] PENN Q2 release
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.
What can break
A $9.5 million Q2 Interactive adjusted EBITDA loss leaves digital profitability unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
19
Value
51
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.50 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $10.50Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $23.78
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d -0.4
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +3.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.6.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A $9.5 million Q2 Interactive adjusted EBITDA loss leaves digital profitability unproven. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Council Bluffs and New Orleans returns depend on construction execution, timing and regulatory approvals. [#PR-2026-09-10] [#PR-2026-08-17]
  • • Interactive remained loss-making in Q2, property ramps and new developments require capital, and traditional net debt was $1.9 billion at June 30.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Interactive profitability and Alberta launch follow-through

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-8.4
Value
51
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.6
Δ21d
-5.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 19.3 / Value 51.3 / Sentiment 59.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$1.94B
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
134.07M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-2.5
P/S (TTM)
0.29
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.05
Rev YoY
+5.2%
EPS YoY
-308.6%
Gross Margin
+28.7%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
$10.56B
Current Ratio
0.89
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data