B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PD
PagerDutyFNYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bull case is that PagerDuty has crossed into sustained profitability, generated $102.7 million of free cash flow in FY2026, ended January 31, 2026 with about $469.8 million of cash, cash equivalents, and investments, and is trying to use AI agents, MCP integrations, and usage-based pricing to widen platform value [#8-K-2026-03-12][#10-K-2026-03-12].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Dollar-based net retention fell to 98% from 106%, signaling continued pressure on expansion and renewal quality [#8-K-2026-03-12].
Momentum
97
Value
63
Sentiment
6
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $6.75 · Bull $11.50 · Bear $4.75Analysis 2026-05-07; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-07 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $12.64
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d +0.3
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment6 · Δ7d +2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta 0.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Dollar-based net retention fell to 98% from 106%, signaling continued pressure on expansion and renewal quality [#8-K-2026-03-12].
- • FY2027 revenue guidance of $488.5 million-$496.5 million implies little near-term top-line acceleration after FY2026 revenue of $492.5 million [#8-K-2026-03-12].
- • The bear case is that the core business is still showing weak demand indicators: ARR grew just 1%, dollar-based net retention fell to 98%, customers with ARR above $100,000 grew only 1%, and FY2027 revenue guidance is roughly flat versus FY2026, which keeps open the risk that margin strength is outpacing growth quality [#8-K-2026-03-12][#10-K-2026-03-12].
Catalyst clock
2026-03-12
FY2026 print reset the near-term growth bar
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
+11.8
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+3.9
Sentiment
6
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
-6.3
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 97.4 / Value 63.1 / Sentiment 5.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-07. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-07 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$902.33M
Beta
0.67
Shares Out
77.12M
P/E (TTM)
7.6
P/S (TTM)
2.27
P/FCF (TTM)
10.22
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
-281.3%
Gross Margin
+85.1%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
-$56.51M
Current Ratio
1.88
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data