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PCAR

PACCARA
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The Q2 print was stronger than stored pre-release expectations, with higher EPS, record Parts revenue, strong orders, and improving production. Freight-rate improvement, fleet aging, emissions-regulation clarity, and the aftermarket network could support a cyclical recovery.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
2027 emissions requirements and related customer purchase timing remain execution and cost risks.
Momentum
60
Value
54
Sentiment
80
Setup hits (3d)
6 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $138.64 · Bull $155.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $144.07
Why
Momentum60 · Δ7d -10.6
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment80 · Δ7d +7.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • 6 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • 2027 emissions requirements and related customer purchase timing remain execution and cost risks.
  • • Direct truck-OEM peer comparisons and verified post-print analyst revisions remain unavailable.
  • • Revenue growth was modest year over year, first-half revenue declined year over year, and truck demand remains exposed to freight rates, fleet economics, regulation, and macro conditions.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Q2 earnings beat and sequential improvement

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
60
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.6
Δ21d
-3.0
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-4.6
Sentiment
80
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+8.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 59.9 / Value 53.8 / Sentiment 80.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$155.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$138.64
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$68.87B
Beta
1.04
Shares Out
526.37M
P/E (TTM)
22.1
P/S (TTM)
2.01
P/FCF (TTM)
62.90
Rev YoY
+0.6%
EPS YoY
+3.7%
Gross Margin
+15.2%
Op Margin
+10.4%
Net Debt
$6.18B
Current Ratio
2.39
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data