RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

PBR

Petroleo BrasileiroC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Durable commodity strength, higher refining margins, and clear capital-return actions (asset sales/dividends) drive sustained EPS beats and re-rating toward the upper analyst range.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Brazilian political/regulatory intervention or tax changes
Momentum
80
Value
68
Sentiment
46
Setup hits (3d)
11 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $15.31 · Bull $18.37 · Bear $12.55Analysis 2026-01-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-01-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $21.95
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +17.8
Value68 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment46 · Δ7d -6.3
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.3.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Brazilian political/regulatory intervention or tax changes
  • • Execution risk on divestitures and capital returns
  • • A sharp oil-price decline, margin compression, or adverse Brazilian policy actions lead to earnings misses and multiple compression, pushing the stock toward the lower analyst band.

Catalyst clock

2026-03-05

FY2025 earnings release

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+17.8
Δ21d
+32.2
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+2.6
Sentiment
46
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.3
Δ21d
-9.1
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 80.4 / Value 68.1 / Sentiment 46.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-01-30. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$18.37
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$15.31
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$12.55
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-01-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$111.28B
Beta
0.73
Shares Out
3.72B
P/E (TTM)
5.0
P/S (TTM)
0.82
P/FCF (TTM)
16.70
Rev YoY
+59.6%
EPS YoY
+120.7%
Gross Margin
+47.5%
Op Margin
+34.8%
Net Debt
$60.85B
Current Ratio
0.85
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data