B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
PAYC
Paycom SoftwareBNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 beat, 11% recurring-revenue growth, 44% adjusted EBITDA margin, and raised FY26 outlook strengthen the case that Paycom's automation strategy and product execution are supporting growth and profitability.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +15.6.
What can break
Cash was $198.0 million at June 30 versus $370.0 million at December 31 while the company conducted substantial repurchases, limiting financial-flexibility visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
Momentum
98
Value
58
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $225.00 · Bull $250.00 · Bear $180.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $219.67
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -0.7
Value58 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +15.6
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +15.6.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash was $198.0 million at June 30 versus $370.0 million at December 31 while the company conducted substantial repurchases, limiting financial-flexibility visibility. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05]
- • FY26 revenue growth remains only 7%-8%, leaving the shares sensitive to demand, hiring, and payroll-volume slowdown.
- • Growth remains moderate at 7%-8% for FY26, verified post-print analyst revisions are unavailable, and the supplied peer set lacks enough direct operating comparators.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 2026 beat and raised FY26 outlook
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-1.4
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
+3.8
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+15.6
Δ21d
-0.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 97.7 / Value 57.9 / Sentiment 66.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$225.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$9.49B
Beta
0.80
Shares Out
44.29M
P/E (TTM)
19.0
P/S (TTM)
4.20
P/FCF (TTM)
27.56
Rev YoY
+9.8%
EPS YoY
+47.7%
Gross Margin
+74.3%
Op Margin
+30.3%
Net Debt
-$279.7M
Current Ratio
1.02
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data