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PAGS

PagSeguro DigitalC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 showed continued ecosystem monetization, strong deposit growth, disciplined credit expansion, lower funding costs, resilient profitability, and robust capital. If NPL performance and banking engagement persist, the company can support a gradual re-rating toward the available analyst median target.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.
What can break
Credit losses, underwriting quality, or macro deterioration could challenge the rapid credit-portfolio expansion.
Momentum
27
Value
63
Sentiment
61
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $9.20 · Bull $11.40 · Bear $7.40Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $11.70
Why
Momentum27 · Δ7d +8.5
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment61 · Δ7d -1.9
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.9.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit losses, underwriting quality, or macro deterioration could challenge the rapid credit-portfolio expansion.
  • • Funding-cost, margin, and capital-return execution risks remain material.
  • • Top-line momentum remains modest, with TPV up only 3% and total revenue up 0.4% year over year.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-11

Q2 banking and credit execution confirmed

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
27
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.5
Δ21d
+5.0
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
61
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.9
Δ21d
-16.9
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 26.8 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 60.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$9.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$2.4B
Beta
1.39
Shares Out
277.52M
P/E (TTM)
7.5
P/S (TTM)
0.83
P/FCF (TTM)
6.42
Rev YoY
+11.9%
EPS YoY
+23.5%
Gross Margin
+51.2%
Op Margin
+37.7%
Net Debt
$6.87B
Current Ratio
1.55
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data