B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OXBR
Oxbridge ReFNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bullish support rests on the tokenized reinsurance platform showing real commercial traction: Q4 2025 was profitable, FY2025 cash plus restricted cash improved to about $6.98 million, and management claims current 2025-26 offerings are tracking at or above target returns while expanding distribution [#10-K-2026-03-30] [#PR-2026-03-30] [#PR-2026-02-10]. Because the equity value is only about $10.6 million, even modest evidence of outside demand or fee-bearing platform growth could move the stock sharply.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Catastrophe loss and reserve volatility can swamp premiums in a very small underwriting base.
Momentum
97
Value
38
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.65 · Bull $1.10 · Bear $0.30Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.00
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d -
Value38 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment25 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catastrophe loss and reserve volatility can swamp premiums in a very small underwriting base.
- • Micro-cap liquidity and prior equity issuance create elevated dilution and financing risk.
- • The bearish case is that OXBR remains a thinly traded micro-cap insurer with weak underwriting optics, limited forward visibility, and an unproven tokenization monetization story.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 2026 update on underwriting normalization and liquidity
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
97
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
38
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
25
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 97.3 / Value 38.2 / Sentiment 24.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$11.15M
Beta
2.28
Shares Out
8.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.9
P/S (TTM)
3.88
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
21.47
Rev YoY
+41.6%
EPS YoY
-108.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-10.8%
Net Debt
-$6.82M
Current Ratio
79.56
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data