B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OXBR
Oxbridge ReDNasdaq / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Bullish support rests on the tokenized reinsurance platform showing real commercial traction: Q4 2025 was profitable, FY2025 cash plus restricted cash improved to about $6.98 million, and management claims current 2025-26 offerings are tracking at or above target returns while expanding distribution [#10-K-2026-03-30] [#PR-2026-03-30] [#PR-2026-02-10]. Because the equity value is only about $10.6 million, even modest evidence of outside demand or fee-bearing platform growth could move the stock sharply.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
What can break
Catastrophe loss and reserve volatility can swamp premiums in a very small underwriting base.
Momentum
97
Value
39
Sentiment
36
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $0.65 · Bull $1.10 · Bear $0.30Analysis 2026-04-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $3.00
Why
Momentum97 · Δ7d -
Value39 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment36 · Δ7d -
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Catastrophe loss and reserve volatility can swamp premiums in a very small underwriting base.
- • Micro-cap liquidity and prior equity issuance create elevated dilution and financing risk.
- • The bearish case is that OXBR remains a thinly traded micro-cap insurer with weak underwriting optics, limited forward visibility, and an unproven tokenization monetization story.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 2026 update on underwriting normalization and liquidity
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
97
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
39
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.8
Sentiment
36
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 97.3 / Value 39.1 / Sentiment 35.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-15. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$0.65
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$7.73M
Beta
2.28
Shares Out
8.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-3.4
P/S (TTM)
3.88
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
14.89
Rev YoY
+41.6%
EPS YoY
-108.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-10.8%
Net Debt
-$6.82M
Current Ratio
79.56
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data