B+
Bull case
0%
Probability
Target price
$40.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OUST
OusterFNasdaq / Technology Hardware & Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The post-print bull case is that Q1 confirmed real product demand rather than royalty-driven noise: product revenue rose 55% year over year, shipments exceeded 12,600 units, management cited new million-dollar contracts, and Q2 guidance holds near $50 million even before broader Rev8 monetization. Thin but positive T+3 revision evidence also appeared, with secondary coverage indicating Oppenheimer raised its target to $42 while Northland maintained $38.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.
What can break
Inventory rose to about $29.9 million from about $23.6 million at year-end 2025, adding execution risk if demand timing or product mix shifts [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
Momentum
23
Value
34
Sentiment
41
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $40.00 · Bear $18.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.50
Why
Momentum23 · Δ7d -21.4
Value34 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment41 · Δ7d -1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Inventory rose to about $29.9 million from about $23.6 million at year-end 2025, adding execution risk if demand timing or product mix shifts [#10-Q-2026-05-05].
- • Ouster remains unprofitable, with Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of about $17 million and adjusted EBITDA loss of about $7 million despite strong top-line growth [#8-K-2026-05-05].
- • The post-print bear case is that durability is still unproven: total revenue fell sequentially after a royalty-aided Q4, GAAP gross margin dropped to 43% from 60% in Q4, the company remains loss-making, and near-term guidance looked only roughly in line with outside expectations.
Catalyst clock
2026-06-17
Rev8 launch and June investor-event cadence could test whether new product interest converts into design wins
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
23
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-21.4
Δ21d
-67.4
Value
34
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
41
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.8
Δ21d
+10.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 22.9 / Value 34.3 / Sentiment 41.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
1%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
0%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.47B
Beta
2.91
Shares Out
72.11M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-44.9
P/S (TTM)
10.84
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-36.66
Rev YoY
+55.9%
EPS YoY
-27.5%
Gross Margin
+48.4%
Op Margin
-34.4%
Net Debt
-$192.97M
Current Ratio
4.16
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data