B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OSUR
OraSureCNasdaq / Health Care Equipment & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-earnings read is that Q1 did not break the stabilization thesis: revenue beat the midpoint of guidance, core revenue was nearly flat year over year, gross margin improved, and management still points to 2026 regulatory and commercial milestones that could make the current enterprise value look too low if launches begin contributing in 2H26. [#8-K-2026-05-06]
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
What can break
Cash used in operating activities was $13.9 million in Q1, so the balance sheet is a buffer but not a solved issue.
Momentum
16
Value
37
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $3.40 · Bull $4.75 · Bear $2.20Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.00
Why
Momentum16 · Δ7d -1.5
Value37 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +11.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +11.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cash used in operating activities was $13.9 million in Q1, so the balance sheet is a buffer but not a solved issue.
- • Diagnostics revenue fell 5% year over year, driven by weaker HCV revenue, while COVID-19 and risk assessment testing revenues have largely rolled off.
- • The bearish read is that this is still a monitoring story, not a clean inflection: losses widened, operating cash burn remained material, diagnostics revenue declined on HCV weakness, and Q2 guidance suggests stabilization rather than visible acceleration.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Post-earnings setup is now about proving Q2 stability rather than just clearing a low bar
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
16
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-1.5
Δ21d
-22.4
Value
37
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+11.0
Δ21d
+14.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 16.1 / Value 36.6 / Sentiment 66.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$3.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$262.77M
Beta
0.86
Shares Out
68.97M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-4.1
P/S (TTM)
1.41
P/FCF (TTM)
7.51
Rev YoY
-1.9%
EPS YoY
-133.7%
Gross Margin
+38.9%
Op Margin
-64.8%
Net Debt
-$158.37M
Current Ratio
8.88
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data