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OSPN

OneSpanA
Nasdaq / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Subscription revenue growth, 103% NRR, ARR expansion, and DigipassONE adoption could improve recurring growth and support a higher valuation multiple [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.
What can break
A CFO reported an open-market sale of 20,000 shares on June 16, 2026; this is insider-activity context only and not evidence of operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-16].
Momentum
64
Value
63
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $18.00 · Bull $20.00 · Bear $13.00Analysis 2026-08-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.00
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +17.5
Value63 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d +4.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • A CFO reported an open-market sale of 20,000 shares on June 16, 2026; this is insider-activity context only and not evidence of operating performance [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-16].
  • • Cash and cash equivalents fell to $43.3 million from $70.5 million at December 31, 2025 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-04].
  • • The investment case weakens if cybersecurity revenue remains in decline, total growth stays near 1%, profitability deteriorates, or cash continues to fall.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-04

Q2 results show subscription strength but mixed operating performance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+17.5
Δ21d
-16.8
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.9
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.8
Δ21d
+0.2
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 64.3 / Value 62.9 / Sentiment 72.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$18.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$587.06M
Beta
1.53
Shares Out
36.85M
P/E (TTM)
8.6
P/S (TTM)
2.01
P/FCF (TTM)
12.98
Rev YoY
+1.0%
EPS YoY
-16.8%
Gross Margin
+70.3%
Op Margin
+18.6%
Net Debt
-$62.1M
Current Ratio
1.27
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data