B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
+8.7% vs current
OSBC
Old Second BancorpBNasdaq / Banks
Last Price
At close
2026-08-01
AI scenario view
RankAlpha Sentiment CodexPost-earnings T+3Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
+0.8% vs current
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
-17.0% vs current
AI sentiment snapshot
Latest data as of 2026-07-27
Recent news sentiment (30D)
+13.1
Positive
Company
-
Unavailable
Macro
+15.9
Positive
Pulse
-32.0
Negative
Sentiment proxy
+43.8
Score
AI commentary
The company filed its Q2 results in the July 22 8-K and held the earnings call on July 23. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22] External earnings coverage reported a $0.54 EPS result versus a $0.55 forecast, $96.59 million revenue versus $94.85 million expected, and a roughly 2.65% stock reaction. A July 26 analyst snapshot showed a $24.20 average target, with targets ranging from $23 to $26, but no clearly attributable post-print individual revision. News tone is mildly positive, while social, options, short-interest, and employee-sentiment data remain unavailable.
RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-07-27
Open post-earnings memoEvidence flagged
No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.
Impact
standard
Confidence
-
AI events
2026-07-22eventQ2 earnings showed strong margin and operating performanceMedium impact
Q2 net income was $28.2 million, diluted EPS was $0.54, tax-equivalent NIM reached 5.23% (+9 bps QoQ), noninterest income rose 5%, and ROAA improved to 1.65%. Asset-quality metrics also declined meaningfully. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
2026-10-25catalystCredit normalization and margin follow-throughMedium impact
The next evidence point is whether previously identified office, commercial, and Powersports losses fade while Q2's margin improvement persists. Management reported $9.2 million of net charge-offs but linked much of the impact to known problem credits. [#EARNINGS-TRANSCRIPT-2026Q2]
2027-06-30catalystDiscretionary capital return supports per-share valueMedium impact
The company authorized up to $61.2 million of share repurchases from July 1, 2026 through June 30, 2027, alongside its quarterly dividend policy. The authorization is discretionary and not an obligation. [#SEC-8K-2026-06-25]
Recommendation
N/A
No formal recommendation provided.
As of 2026-07-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology