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OSBC

Old Second BancorpC
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The company-source release confirms strong Q2 NIM, improved efficiency, higher fee income, declining problem assets, and continued capital returns. The operating result supports a modest re-rating if credit losses normalize.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.
What can break
Analyst coverage remains limited and reviewed post-print sources did not show a clear individual rating or estimate revision.
Momentum
74
Value
51
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $25.50 · Bull $27.50 · Bear $21.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-16 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-16

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-16. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $27.50
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d +0.8
Value51 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -4.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.8.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Analyst coverage remains limited and reviewed post-print sources did not show a clear individual rating or estimate revision.
  • • Deposit and loan competition could pressure funding costs and partially reverse the 5.23% Q2 NIM.
  • • The quarter was not clean: net charge-offs were elevated, including office and Powersports-related exposures.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-22

Q2 earnings showed strong margin and operating performance

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
51
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.8
Δ21d
-5.2
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 73.9 / Value 50.9 / Sentiment 61.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$27.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$25.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$21.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.31B
Beta
0.81
Shares Out
50.88M
P/E (TTM)
13.2
P/S (TTM)
3.32
P/FCF (TTM)
12.40
Rev YoY
+32.7%
EPS YoY
+13.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+27.1%
Net Debt
$287.26M
Current Ratio
0.05
As of 2026-09-16 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data