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ORI

Old Republic InternationalB
NYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Title Insurance strength, higher investment income, capital returns, and 7.2% year-to-date book-value-per-share growth can support steady long-run compounding if Specialty reserve trends stabilize.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.7.
What can break
Operating earnings are weakening despite higher GAAP net income, which benefited from investment gains.
Momentum
35
Value
68
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $44.50 · Bull $47.50 · Bear $38.50Analysis 2026-07-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.50
Why
Momentum35 · Δ7d -9.7
Value68 · Δ7d +9.9
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +6.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Operating earnings are weakening despite higher GAAP net income, which benefited from investment gains.
  • • Peer evidence remains limited for a high-coverage issuer, reducing confidence in relative valuation.
  • • Specialty weakness and reduced favorable reserve development may persist; Q2 operating income and EPS declined year over year while the combined ratio deteriorated.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-24

Mixed Q2 2026 earnings and post-print reaction

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
35
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.7
Δ21d
-17.6
Value
68
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.9
Δ21d
+9.9
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.7
Δ21d
+2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 35.1 / Value 68.0 / Sentiment 67.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-28. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$47.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$44.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$38.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$10.26B
Beta
0.76
Shares Out
241.43M
P/E (TTM)
13.2
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
21.16
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+60.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$1.52B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data