B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$45.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
ORI
Old Republic InternationalBNYSE / Insurance
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Premium and fee growth, stronger Title earnings, ECM's accretive operating contribution and capital returns could offset the Q3 underwriting setback if reserve and credit-loss pressure subsides. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22] Company earnings exhibit
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
Direct Title premiums were relatively flat in a difficult real-estate environment, limiting confidence that agency-led growth will translate into sustained margin recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
28
Value
59
Sentiment
57
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $41.50 · Bull $45.00 · Bear $34.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.50
Why
Momentum28 · Δ7d -4.6
Value59 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment57 · Δ7d -10.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Direct Title premiums were relatively flat in a difficult real-estate environment, limiting confidence that agency-led growth will translate into sustained margin recovery. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • Q3 consolidated combined ratio worsened to 96.1% from 95.3%; favorable reserve development fell to 1.1 points from 2.5 points. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
- • Operating EPS declined year over year and missed the published consensus range; weaker reserve development, the Specialty credit loss, technology/start-up costs and sluggish direct Title premiums could keep margins under pressure.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-23
Post-earnings reassessment after operating EPS miss
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
28
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.6
Δ21d
-0.1
Value
59
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
57
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-10.1
Δ21d
-24.1
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 28.3 / Value 59.4 / Sentiment 56.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$41.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$34.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$9.28B
Beta
0.76
Shares Out
241.43M
P/E (TTM)
13.2
P/S (TTM)
1.24
P/FCF (TTM)
21.16
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+60.8%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+15.6%
Net Debt
$1.52B
Current Ratio
0.68
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data