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ORCL

OracleD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q4 revenue, 47% cloud growth, 93% OCI growth, and $638 billion of RPO provide strong operating momentum. Q1 FY27 guidance, the FY27 $90 billion revenue framework, and the planned OCI-AWS interconnect create measurable company-specific checkpoints for continued AI-cloud acceleration.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-10 · AMC.
What can break
Negative FY26 free cash flow of $23.7 billion and continued AI-datacenter investment could delay cash conversion. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10]
Momentum
32
Value
49
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $152.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
78 · Strong watchlist
Next 2026-09-10 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-09-10 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $246.47
Why
Momentum32 · Δ7d +6.4
Value49 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
78Strong watchlist2026-09-10 amc
View setup

Oracle combines positive three-month EPS and revenue estimate revisions with a sharp pre-event rebound and an AI/cloud backlog catalyst, but the latest verified closes did not meet the required 0.75 close-location threshold and negative fiscal-year free cash flow keeps risk hygiene below full marks.

Screen as of 2026-09-10. Window 2026-09-10 to 2026-09-16.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-09-10 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 78 / strong watchlist.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Negative FY26 free cash flow of $23.7 billion and continued AI-datacenter investment could delay cash conversion. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10]
  • • Oracle expects approximately $40 billion of FY27 debt and equity financing, creating dilution, leverage, and execution risk. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10] [#IR-FINANCING-2026-02-01]
  • • FY26 free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion and the business remains dependent on large-scale infrastructure investment and financing.

Catalyst clock

2026-09-10 · AMC

OCI-AWS interconnect availability milestone

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
32
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.4
Δ21d
+7.7
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+0.5
Sentiment
58
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-6.7
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 32.2 / Value 48.6 / Sentiment 57.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$152.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$422.42B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
2.88B
P/E (TTM)
34.1
P/S (TTM)
9.07
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-14.51
Rev YoY
+20.6%
EPS YoY
+21.4%
Gross Margin
+63.3%
Op Margin
+33.3%
Net Debt
$135.54B
Current Ratio
1.11
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data