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ORCL

OracleD
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Record Q4 revenue, 47% cloud growth, 93% OCI growth, and $638 billion of RPO provide strong operating momentum. Q1 FY27 guidance, the FY27 $90 billion revenue framework, and the planned OCI-AWS interconnect create measurable company-specific checkpoints for continued AI-cloud acceleration.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
News driver: Credit stress is threatening to unwind the AI bull. All eyes are on Oracle to hold the line.
What can break
Negative FY26 free cash flow of $23.7 billion and continued AI-datacenter investment could delay cash conversion. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10]
Momentum
15
Value
49
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $152.00 · Bull $180.00 · Bear $120.00Analysis 2026-08-04; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-04 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $242.84
Why
Momentum15 · Δ7d +6.6
Value49 · Δ7d +0.5
Sentiment56 · Δ7d +2.0
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • News driver: Credit stress is threatening to unwind the AI bull. All eyes are on Oracle to hold the line.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Negative FY26 free cash flow of $23.7 billion and continued AI-datacenter investment could delay cash conversion. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10]
  • • Oracle expects approximately $40 billion of FY27 debt and equity financing, creating dilution, leverage, and execution risk. [#IR-EARNINGS-2026-06-10] [#IR-FINANCING-2026-02-01]
  • • FY26 free cash flow was negative $23.7 billion and the business remains dependent on large-scale infrastructure investment and financing.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-02

OCI-AWS interconnect availability milestone

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
15
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.6
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
49
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
+1.4
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.0
Δ21d
+7.2
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 15.4 / Value 49.5 / Sentiment 55.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-04. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$180.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$152.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$120.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-04 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$381.47B
Beta
1.64
Shares Out
3.02B
P/E (TTM)
34.1
P/S (TTM)
9.07
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-12.48
Rev YoY
+20.6%
EPS YoY
+21.4%
Gross Margin
+63.3%
Op Margin
+33.3%
Net Debt
$135.54B
Current Ratio
1.11
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data