B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OPRT
Oportun FinancialDNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Improved funding costs and liquidity, continued GAAP profitability, reiterated 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.50-$1.65, and a potential second-half risk-based pricing launch could support a recovery if originations grow without renewed credit deterioration [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.2.
What can break
Low coverage, absent recent-news aggregation, and unavailable analyst revisions limit forward visibility.
Momentum
93
Value
57
Sentiment
40
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.30 · Bull $7.20 · Bear $4.20Analysis 2026-07-22; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-22 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $9.60
Why
Momentum93 · Δ7d -0.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.6
Sentiment40 · Δ7d -6.2
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -6.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Low coverage, absent recent-news aggregation, and unavailable analyst revisions limit forward visibility.
- • Originations and owned principal balance are below prior-year levels, constraining growth and fee generation.
- • Lower originations, weaker portfolio yield, and a 271-basis-point year-over-year decline in risk-adjusted net interest margin indicate that profitability has not yet translated into durable, profitable growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-20
Risk-based pricing initiative
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
93
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
40
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-6.2
Δ21d
-4.3
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 92.5 / Value 56.9 / Sentiment 39.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-22. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.30
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-22 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$345.82M
Beta
1.18
Shares Out
45.99M
P/E (TTM)
7.9
P/S (TTM)
0.57
P/FCF (TTM)
0.62
Rev YoY
-0.5%
EPS YoY
+20.3%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+4.2%
Net Debt
$2.61B
Current Ratio
3.97
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data