RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

ONIT

Onity GroupC
NYSE / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 15% year over year to $283 million, supported by record origination volume and servicing additions. If those gains translate into sustained profitability after portfolio repositioning, the stock could recover.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
Asset fair-value changes and restructuring costs drove a Q2 GAAP loss despite revenue growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
Momentum
8
Value
64
Sentiment
54
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $28.50 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $17.00Analysis 2026-10-26; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $49.67
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +1.2
Value64 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment54 · Δ7d -2.7
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Asset fair-value changes and restructuring costs drove a Q2 GAAP loss despite revenue growth. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Management expects 2026 adjusted ROE at the low end of its maintained 10%–15% range; Q2 also introduced a revised non-GAAP methodology. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06]
  • • Q2 produced a $13 million common-stockholder net loss, including restructuring costs and adverse asset fair-value changes; management expects adjusted ROE at the low end of guidance.

Catalyst clock

2026-12-31

Delivery against 2026 adjusted ROE outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
8
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+1.2
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
64
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.0
Sentiment
54
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.7
Δ21d
-30.8
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 8.4 / Value 64.3 / Sentiment 54.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-26. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$28.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
35%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-26 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$216.3M
Beta
1.57
Shares Out
8.35M
P/E (TTM)
13.4
P/S (TTM)
0.36
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-0.10
Rev YoY
+17.0%
EPS YoY
-163.6%
Gross Margin
+93.4%
Op Margin
+30.9%
Net Debt
$14.44B
Current Ratio
0.87
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data