B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$15.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OGN
OrganonBNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The merger may provide valuation support, while biosimilars growth and the potential late-2026 MIUDELLA launch offer operating offsets. The Q2 revenue beat was modestly constructive despite the EPS miss.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
What can break
Limited analyst-revision and post-print market-reaction evidence reduces confidence in forward estimates.
Momentum
44
Value
70
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.00 · Bull $15.00 · Bear $11.50Analysis 2026-08-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.00
Why
Momentum44 · Δ7d +13.0
Value70 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +6.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Limited analyst-revision and post-print market-reaction evidence reduces confidence in forward estimates.
- • No financial guidance or quarterly earnings calls during the merger process.
- • Q2 adjusted EPS missed consensus, revenue declined year over year, adjusted gross margin compressed, and the company is providing no guidance or earnings call.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-31
Mixed Q2 print leaves limited near-term upside
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
44
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+13.0
Δ21d
-22.3
Value
70
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
63
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.1
Δ21d
+1.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 43.5 / Value 70.5 / Sentiment 62.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$3.6B
Beta
0.54
Shares Out
262.61M
P/E (TTM)
3.9
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM)
4.74
Rev YoY
-2.3%
EPS YoY
-28.4%
Gross Margin
+53.1%
Op Margin
+19.4%
Net Debt
$8.23B
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data