Most likely
B+
Bull case
78%
Probability
Target price
$14.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OGN
OrganonANYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Regulatory clearance and timely closing would deliver $14.00 cash per share; MIUDELLA's clinical and regulatory progress supports the underlying business but does not raise the signed consideration.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
MIUDELLA's six-year indication remains under FDA review; interim study follow-up is ongoing [#PR-2026-10-16].
Momentum
87
Value
69
Sentiment
53
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.70 · Bull $14.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-23
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.00
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +4.9
Value69 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment53 · Δ7d +0.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • MIUDELLA's six-year indication remains under FDA review; interim study follow-up is ongoing [#PR-2026-10-16].
- • Merger failure could expose shares to standalone operating and leverage risks with limited offset from the narrow deal spread.
- • A delayed or failed merger would remove the cash-offer anchor while leaving investors exposed to Nexplanon demand weakness, product execution risk, and substantial debt.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
MIUDELLA commercial availability
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+4.9
Δ21d
+13.8
Value
69
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
-0.9
Sentiment
53
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+0.7
Δ21d
-10.0
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 87.3 / Value 69.1 / Sentiment 53.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
B
Base case
12%
Probability
Target price
$13.70
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
10%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-23
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$3.61B
Beta
0.54
Shares Out
262.61M
P/E (TTM)
3.9
P/S (TTM)
0.31
P/FCF (TTM)
4.74
Rev YoY
-2.3%
EPS YoY
-28.4%
Gross Margin
+53.1%
Op Margin
+19.4%
Net Debt
$8.23B
Current Ratio
1.95
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data