RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

OEC

OrionB
NYSE / Materials
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The bull case is that the May 6 earnings release marked a real inflection: volumes improved late in the quarter, contractual pass-through mechanisms worked, cost actions accrued favorably, and management raised full-year Adjusted EBITDA guidance. If that operating momentum persists, OEC can recover from a low base.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.
What can break
Low coverage and sparse visible analyst-revision evidence reduce confidence in any fast re-rating thesis.
Momentum
30
Value
63
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.80 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $4.40Analysis 2026-07-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.31
Why
Momentum30 · Δ7d -9.5
Value63 · Δ7d -0.4
Sentiment60 · Δ7d -2.3
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Low coverage and sparse visible analyst-revision evidence reduce confidence in any fast re-rating thesis.
  • • Net debt to trailing-twelve-month Adjusted EBITDA of 4.2x leaves limited room for execution misses. [#SEC-8K-2026-05-06]
  • • The bear case is that the guide raise came alongside weak cash conversion, free cash outflow, and 4.2x net leverage, leaving little room for another demand wobble or energy-cost spike.

Catalyst clock

2026-08-31

Q1 guide raise needs to hold through the next operating update

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
30
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.5
Δ21d
-9.5
Value
63
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.4
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.3
Δ21d
+0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 30.1 / Value 62.6 / Sentiment 59.8

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-03. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$5.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$4.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$308.05M
Beta
1.06
Shares Out
56.52M
P/E (TTM)
18.0
P/S (TTM)
0.17
P/FCF (TTM)
10.49
Rev YoY
+7.4%
EPS YoY
-80.4%
Gross Margin
+18.4%
Op Margin
+3.9%
Net Debt
$1.05B
Current Ratio
1.03
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data