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OBT

Orange County BancorpB
Nasdaq / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The latest company-reported results show strong earnings momentum, higher NIM, 5.2% deposit growth, and 7.5% book-value-per-share growth [#SEC-8K-2026-07-28].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.
What can break
Credit, commercial-real-estate, and funding-mix risks remain important for a small community bank, while the current packet does not provide updated detailed metrics.
Momentum
54
Value
67
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $42.25 · Bull $46.50 · Bear $33.50Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $43.33
Why
Momentum54 · Δ7d -4.5
Value67 · Δ7d +6.9
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +1.7
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.7.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Credit, commercial-real-estate, and funding-mix risks remain important for a small community bank, while the current packet does not provide updated detailed metrics.
  • • Earnings quality is partly dependent on nonrecurring tax-valuation and fair-value items.
  • • Headline earnings benefited materially from a deferred-tax valuation allowance reversal, while loan growth was roughly flat and the company cited substantial loan payoffs; the loans-held-for-sale adjustment also highlights earnings volatility [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-28].

Catalyst clock

2026-07-28

Record second-quarter earnings and stronger NIM

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
54
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-4.5
Δ21d
-15.1
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.9
Δ21d
+6.9
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.7
Δ21d
+28.3
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 54.4 / Value 67.3 / Sentiment 68.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$42.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$33.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$519.16M
Beta
0.44
Shares Out
13.41M
P/E (TTM)
9.6
P/S (TTM)
3.19
P/FCF (TTM)
11.44
Rev YoY
-4.5%
EPS YoY
+17.1%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+33.3%
Net Debt
-$165.33M
Current Ratio
0.22
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data