B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$62.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
OBK
Origin BancorpCNYSE / Banks
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The SEC-filed Q2 release supports a cautiously positive operating thesis: stronger EPS, NIM, ROAA, loan growth, credit quality, deposit mix, and capital returns all improved sequentially. The $58 median target implies approximately 8.2% upside from the $53.62 anchor, but target coverage is incomplete.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
What can break
A CEO Form 4 reported a 10,338-share disposition for tax withholding; it is not treated as evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-18]
Momentum
64
Value
45
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $57.50 · Bull $62.00 · Bear $46.50Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $58.60
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d +7.0
Value45 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment66 · Δ7d +4.0
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +4.0.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A CEO Form 4 reported a 10,338-share disposition for tax withholding; it is not treated as evidence about operating performance. [#SEC-FORM4-2026-06-18]
- • Credit metrics improved, but nonperforming LHFI remained $78.5 million and future loss performance is uncertain. [#SEC-8K-2026-07-22]
- • Funding and margin durability remain the main concerns.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-22
Q2 2026 earnings showed broad sequential improvement
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
64
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+2.8
Value
45
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-5.3
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.0
Δ21d
+1.5
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 63.5 / Value 45.3 / Sentiment 66.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
55%
Probability
Target price
$57.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$46.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.66B
Beta
0.76
Shares Out
30.85M
P/E (TTM)
20.1
P/S (TTM)
3.26
P/FCF (TTM)
10.20
Rev YoY
+11.3%
EPS YoY
+132.4%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
+19.8%
Net Debt
$20.06M
Current Ratio
0.07
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data