RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

NVR

NVRB
NYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
Backlog units rose 10% year over year despite weaker Q3 orders, leaving a route to improved settlements if cancellations, pricing, and margins stabilize. Mortgage banking pretax income also rose 7% year over year.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Affordability pressure and weak consumer sentiment may continue to weigh on orders and selling prices. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
Momentum
85
Value
55
Sentiment
58
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6,200.00 · Bull $7,000.00 · Bear $5,300.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6,395.33
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -
Value55 · Δ7d +0.2
Sentiment58 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Affordability pressure and weak consumer sentiment may continue to weigh on orders and selling prices. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • Higher lot costs, pricing pressure, and land-deposit impairments may prevent backlog growth from restoring homebuilding margins. [#SEC-8K-2026-10-22]
  • • The EPS miss, 7% decline in orders, higher cancellation rate of 21% versus 19%, and 270-basis-point year-over-year gross-margin contraction suggest the backlog may convert at weaker economics.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-30

Post-earnings reaction tests the relief rally

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.2
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
58
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 84.6 / Value 54.9 / Sentiment 58.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7,000.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$6,200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5,300.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$15.95B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
2.66M
P/E (TTM)
16.1
P/S (TTM)
1.96
P/FCF (TTM)
16.09
Rev YoY
-10.5%
EPS YoY
-22.6%
Gross Margin
+20.4%
Op Margin
+13.0%
Net Debt
-$903.99M
Current Ratio
3.38
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data