B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$7,200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NVR
NVRBNYSE / Consumer Durables & Apparel
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Orders, cancellations, and backlog improved year over year, creating potential operating leverage if settlements recover and affordability-related pricing pressure moderates. No usable post-print analyst revision set is available.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
Continued affordability pressure and weak consumer sentiment could require further pricing concessions.
Momentum
85
Value
55
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $6,600.00 · Bull $7,200.00 · Bear $5,450.00Analysis 2026-07-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6,782.00
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d -
Value55 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment67 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Continued affordability pressure and weak consumer sentiment could require further pricing concessions.
- • Higher lot costs and additional land-deposit impairments could prolong margin compression.
- • The latest company-reported quarter showed broad earnings deterioration: EPS declined 23%, revenue 10%, settlements 8%, and gross margin fell to 19.2%; affordability pressure, higher lot costs, and impairments remain execution risks.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-23
Q2 operating release leaves backlog conversion as the next test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-8.8
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 84.6 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 67.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$6,600.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$5,450.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$16.79B
Beta
1.03
Shares Out
2.66M
P/E (TTM)
16.1
P/S (TTM)
1.96
P/FCF (TTM)
16.09
Rev YoY
-10.5%
EPS YoY
-22.6%
Gross Margin
+20.4%
Op Margin
+13.0%
Net Debt
-$903.99M
Current Ratio
3.38
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data