B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$380.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NVMI
NovaCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 revenue reached $255.0 million, up 16% year over year, with management citing leading-edge and advanced-packaging demand. Delivery against Q3 guidance could support a higher earnings run-rate.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
What can break
Customer concentration, order delays, export restrictions, supply constraints and Israel-related disruption identified in Nova's release. Source: https://www.novami.com/investors/press-releases/nova-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/
Momentum
24
Value
55
Sentiment
56
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $325.00 · Bull $380.00 · Bear $245.00Analysis 2026-10-23; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-26 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-26
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $515.13
Why
Momentum24 · Δ7d +5.6
Value55 · Δ7d -0.7
Sentiment56 · Δ7d -36.6
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.7.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Customer concentration, order delays, export restrictions, supply constraints and Israel-related disruption identified in Nova's release. Source: https://www.novami.com/investors/press-releases/nova-reports-record-second-quarter-2026-financial-results/
- • Gross-margin compression and rising operating expenses despite revenue growth.
- • Q2 gross margin fell to 56.5% from 57.7% in Q1, while operating expenses rose.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05
November 5 Q3 results test the Q2 outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
24
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+5.6
Δ21d
+1.4
Value
55
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.7
Δ21d
-0.5
Sentiment
56
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-36.6
Δ21d
-16.4
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 23.6 / Value 55.0 / Sentiment 56.1
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-23. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$325.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-23 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-26
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-26
Market Cap
$10.06B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
31.81M
P/E (TTM)
48.2
P/S (TTM)
12.08
P/FCF (TTM)
44.79
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
+2.2%
Gross Margin
+57.1%
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
-$249.36M
Current Ratio
1.55
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data