B+
Bull case
20%
Probability
Target price
$525.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
NVMI
NovaCNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained demand and successful large design-wins drive upside to the analyst high; operating leverage and margin expansion accelerate profits, justifying the $525 upside.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.8.
What can break
Analyst sentiment flip following weak guidance
Momentum
19
Value
55
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $426.63 · Bull $525.00 · Bear $335.00Analysis 2026-02-14; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-02-14 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $532.00
Why
Momentum19 · Δ7d +2.7
Value55 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -8.8
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -8.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Analyst sentiment flip following weak guidance
- • Customer concentration and timing of design-wins
- • Cyclical pullback, loss of key customer spend, or delayed product ramps reduce revenue visibility and push consensus toward the low end around $335 (or lower), pressuring shares.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Q1 / FY2026 Earnings Release
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
19
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.7
Δ21d
+12.0
Value
55
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-2.2
Sentiment
66
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.8
Δ21d
+7.1
Why this grade
Composite grade C. Momentum 19.3 / Value 54.8 / Sentiment 65.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-02-14. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
60%
Probability
Target price
$426.63
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-02-14 · RankAlpha Sentiment AI
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$13.37B
Beta
0.95
Shares Out
31.78M
P/E (TTM)
48.2
P/S (TTM)
12.08
P/FCF (TTM)
44.79
Rev YoY
+15.9%
EPS YoY
+2.2%
Gross Margin
+57.1%
Op Margin
+29.0%
Net Debt
-$249.36M
Current Ratio
1.55
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data