B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$102.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NVEC
NVEDNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary sources support a high-quality but narrow earnings print: Q4 net income rose 27%, full-year net income edged up to $15.2 million, operating cash flow reached $16.7 million, and the company still had about $48 million of cash plus marketable securities on its fact sheet. The completed production expansion and expected lower FY27 equipment purchases create a plausible cash-conversion tailwind if product demand remains firm.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
What can break
A large portion of assets sits in marketable securities, exposing book value and income support to bond-market and credit conditions. [#10-K-2026-05-06]
Momentum
63
Value
49
Sentiment
47
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $89.00 · Bull $102.00 · Bear $72.00Analysis 2026-05-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Why
Momentum63 · Δ7d +21.5
Value49 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment47 · Δ7d +1.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +1.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A large portion of assets sits in marketable securities, exposing book value and income support to bond-market and credit conditions. [#10-K-2026-05-06]
- • Customer concentration is high: one customer represented 37% of fiscal 2026 revenue and 27% of receivables at year-end. [#10-K-2026-05-06]
- • The same filings argue for caution: full-year revenue only grew 1.8%, gross margin fell to 78.7% from 83.6%, management disclosed one customer was 37% of FY26 revenue, and the 10-K says fiscal 2027 tax credits should decrease significantly as expansion-related equipment purchases slow.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-15
Post-earnings follow-through after Q4/FY26 beat on profitability
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
63
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+21.5
Δ21d
-21.8
Value
49
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.6
Sentiment
47
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+1.8
Δ21d
+12.4
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 62.7 / Value 48.9 / Sentiment 47.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$89.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$72.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$585.73M
Beta
1.23
Shares Out
4.84M
P/E (TTM)
21.9
P/S (TTM)
12.23
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-155.72
Rev YoY
+80.7%
EPS YoY
+78.6%
Gross Margin
+79.3%
Op Margin
+62.1%
Net Debt
-$18.93M
Current Ratio
23.72
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data