B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NVDA
NVIDIABNasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The Q2 beat, $108B Q3 outlook, 117% year-over-year Data Center growth, and continued Vera Rubin ramp support the view that AI infrastructure demand remains durable. Trusted post-print coverage reported multiple analyst price-target increases, but the packet lacks a normalized updated consensus.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
China data-center compute revenue is excluded from Q3 guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26].
Momentum
84
Value
58
Sentiment
67
Setup hits (3d)
11 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $250.00 · Bull $335.00 · Bear $185.00Analysis 2026-08-31; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-31 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $333.90
Why
Momentum84 · Δ7d -2.0
Value58 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment67 · Δ7d +3.5
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 11 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
- • News driver: A flat week hid an oil shock, policy whiplash and narrow chip leadership.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +3.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China data-center compute revenue is excluded from Q3 guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26].
- • Gross-margin guidance declines to 74.0% ±50 basis points from 75.0% in Q2 [#SEC-8K-2026-08-26].
- • The stock's high expectations leave limited room for execution slippage.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-26
Q2 FY2027 earnings beat and Q3 guide
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
84
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
+18.9
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.4
Sentiment
67
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.5
Δ21d
+22.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 83.6 / Value 57.6 / Sentiment 67.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-31. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$250.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-31 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.45T
Beta
2.31
Shares Out
24.2B
P/E (TTM)
46.6
P/S (TTM)
24.43
P/FCF (TTM)
59.88
Rev YoY
+85.2%
EPS YoY
+213.4%
Gross Margin
+74.1%
Op Margin
+64.0%
Net Debt
-$51.14B
Current Ratio
3.44
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data