B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$290.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NVDA
NVIDIAANasdaq / Semiconductors & Semiconductor Equipment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Fiscal Q2 revenue exceeded NVIDIA's own prior outlook, Data Center revenue rose 117% year over year, and fiscal Q3 revenue guidance implies further sequential growth. Vera Rubin production and partner deployments could sustain earnings upside if supply commitments convert efficiently into shipments.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
What can break
China restrictions constrain H200 sales; the filing reports only a fraction of licensed shipments and a $0.4 billion first-half fiscal 2027 excess-inventory and purchase-obligation charge. [#REL-6b0fc800-5e81-433d-bc0d-c8868bef70d2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm
Momentum
82
Value
56
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
9 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $235.00 · Bull $290.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-10-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $334.45
Why
Momentum82 · Δ7d +3.3
Value56 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment63 · Δ7d -11.9
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 9 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-27.
- • News driver: Proven revenue and science still attract capital as AI infrastructure debt reprices.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -11.9.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China restrictions constrain H200 sales; the filing reports only a fraction of licensed shipments and a $0.4 billion first-half fiscal 2027 excess-inventory and purchase-obligation charge. [#REL-6b0fc800-5e81-433d-bc0d-c8868bef70d2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm
- • Components and parts from overseas partners, especially Taiwan and South Korea, remain a supply dependency. [#REL-47ee6f51-9e56-4863-90c1-6752a7d9fdb0] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000075/nvda-20260726.htm
- • The approximately $5.22 trillion packet market capitalization leaves little room for a demand or margin disappointment.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-30
Fiscal Q3 2027 revenue and margin test
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
82
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+3.3
Δ21d
-1.1
Value
56
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
-1.0
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-11.9
Δ21d
-8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 81.9 / Value 56.4 / Sentiment 63.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$235.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$5.25T
Beta
2.31
Shares Out
24.1B
P/E (TTM)
46.6
P/S (TTM)
24.43
P/FCF (TTM)
59.88
Rev YoY
+85.2%
EPS YoY
+213.4%
Gross Margin
+74.1%
Op Margin
+64.0%
Net Debt
-$51.14B
Current Ratio
3.44
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data