NVAX
NovavaxDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-07-18
Current thesis
The bull case is that Novavax has largely de-risked the old standalone commercial model and now sits on a cash-supported, lower-cost platform with underappreciated partner economics from Sanofi and Matrix-M. If Sanofi-led royalties, technology-transfer milestones, and Pfizer-linked adjuvant monetization begin to show up, the current equity value could look too anchored to a declining COVID-only narrative.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.0.
What can break
2025 revenue included substantial APA settlement revenue tied to prior cash receipts, reducing comparability for 2026.
Momentum
17
Value
60
Sentiment
49
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $5.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-07-18
Fundamentals
As of 2026-07-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-07-18 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-07-18
Investment thesis
As of 2026-07-18
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $14.11
Why
Momentum17 · Δ7d +6.8
Value60 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment49 · Δ7d +9.6
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
17
26% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.8
Δ21d
-14.9
Value
60
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
49
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.6
Δ21d
+6.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 17.4 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 49.5
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-07-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-07-17
Market Cap
$1.35B
Beta
2.58
Shares Out
164.44M
P/E (TTM)
4.0
P/S (TTM)
1.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-15.58
Rev YoY
-79.1%
EPS YoY
-102.0%
Gross Margin
+84.9%
Op Margin
+26.2%
Net Debt
-$467.91M
Current Ratio
2.48
As of 2026-07-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology