NVAX
NovavaxBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
At close
2026-06-02
Current thesis
The bull case is that Novavax has largely de-risked the old standalone commercial model and now sits on a cash-supported, lower-cost platform with underappreciated partner economics from Sanofi and Matrix-M. If Sanofi-led royalties, technology-transfer milestones, and Pfizer-linked adjuvant monetization begin to show up, the current equity value could look too anchored to a declining COVID-only narrative.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Momentum
What changed
Momentum remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.5.
What can break
2025 revenue included substantial APA settlement revenue tied to prior cash receipts, reducing comparability for 2026.
Momentum
88
Value
60
Sentiment
32
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $8.50 · Bull $12.00 · Bear $5.00
Data freshness
Prices
As of 2026-06-02
Fundamentals
As of 2026-06-01 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-06-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-06-02
Investment thesis
As of 2026-06-02
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.78
Why
Momentum88 · Δ7d +12.5
Value60 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment32 · Δ7d -9.0
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Lead driver: Momentum · See technicals
Momentum
88
34% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.5
Δ21d
+52.2
Value
60
32% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+0.3
Sentiment
32
33% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-9.0
Δ21d
-1.8
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 87.8 / Value 60.0 / Sentiment 31.7
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-06-01
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-06-01
Market Cap
$1.73B
Beta
2.58
Shares Out
162.5M
P/E (TTM)
4.0
P/S (TTM)
1.11
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-4.69
Rev YoY
-16.6%
EPS YoY
-64.5%
Gross Margin
+91.8%
Op Margin
+26.2%
Net Debt
-$692.7M
Current Ratio
2.27
As of 2026-06-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology