B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$7.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NUVB
Nuvation BioDNYSE / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Sustained first-line IBTROZI starts could extend product-revenue growth, while favorable subgroup data and safusidenib execution add pipeline value. Nuvation reported $661 million of cash, equivalents and marketable securities at June 30, 2026, before an additional $36.5 million of July convertible-note proceeds.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
What can break
Competing ROS1 therapies could constrain uptake or pricing, and convertible financing complicates a simple cash-versus-market-cap valuation.
Momentum
13
Value
41
Sentiment
66
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $5.20 · Bull $7.00 · Bear $2.60Analysis 2026-10-25; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-11-04 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-11-02 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-11-02 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-25 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-11-02
Investment thesis
As of 2026-11-02
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-11-02. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $13.00
Why
Momentum13 · Δ7d +0.6
Value41 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment66 · Δ7d -2.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-04 · AMC.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.5.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Competing ROS1 therapies could constrain uptake or pricing, and convertible financing complicates a simple cash-versus-market-cap valuation.
- • ESMO's previously treated subgroup analysis may have limited commercial significance relative to first-line launch execution.
- • ROS1 competition, weaker-than-expected launch persistence, trial delays or disappointing safusidenib data could compress the valuation.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-04 · AMC
IBTROZI subgroup data at ESMO
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
13
18% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.6
Δ21d
+9.4
Value
41
43% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
66
39% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.5
Δ21d
-32.6
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 13.3 / Value 40.6 / Sentiment 66.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-25. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$5.20
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.60
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-25 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-11-02
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-11-02
Market Cap
$1.62B
Beta
1.53
Shares Out
352.12M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-7.7
P/S (TTM)
110.10
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-13.05
Rev YoY
+555.6%
EPS YoY
+4.0%
Gross Margin
+86.9%
Op Margin
-81.0%
Net Debt
-$316.45M
Current Ratio
8.37
As of 2026-11-02 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data