RankAlpha logo
Back to Rankings

NTRS

Northern TrustC
Nasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
View Chart
Current thesis
The Q2 print showed broad core momentum, a guidance upgrade, sustained organic fee growth, positive operating leverage, and strong capital return. These factors support modest upside if second-half execution validates the raised outlook.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
What can break
Full-year guidance assumes stable market and interest-rate conditions; weaker markets could pressure asset-based fees, AUM, capital-markets activity, and operating leverage.
Momentum
62
Value
53
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $185.00 · Bull $200.00 · Bear $165.00Analysis 2026-07-27; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-27 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $186.58
Why
Momentum62 · Δ7d +7.3
Value53 · Δ7d -8.6
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -4.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-12.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -4.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Full-year guidance assumes stable market and interest-rate conditions; weaker markets could pressure asset-based fees, AUM, capital-markets activity, and operating leverage.
  • • Management expects tougher second-half comparisons, normalization in foreign exchange, capital markets, and securities lending, and runoff of unusual institutional deposits. [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-23]
  • • Reported EPS benefited materially from the Visa exchange gain, while management expects normalization in foreign exchange, capital markets, securities lending, and unusual deposits in the second half.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-22

Q2 earnings and guidance upgrade improve core outlook

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
62
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.3
Δ21d
-3.5
Value
53
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-8.6
Δ21d
-0.0
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-4.1
Δ21d
-3.4
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 62.3 / Value 52.9 / Sentiment 62.1

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-27. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
30%
Probability
Target price
$200.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$185.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
20%
Probability
Target price
$165.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-27 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$35.03B
Beta
1.28
Shares Out
182.96M
P/E (TTM)
16.8
P/S (TTM)
1.99
P/FCF (TTM)
25.14
Rev YoY
+17.2%
EPS YoY
+98.2%
Gross Margin
+58.0%
Op Margin
+13.4%
Net Debt
-$42.35B
Current Ratio
1.55
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data