B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$380.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NTRA
NateraDNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 results show sustained commercial acceleration, especially in oncology, alongside improving gross margin and a substantial guidance increase. Regulatory approvals, expanded Medicare coverage, and product enhancement support continued adoption [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-31.
What can break
Gross margin remains sensitive to revenue-accrual estimates and cost-of-revenue execution.
Momentum
98
Value
48
Sentiment
37
Setup hits (3d)
3 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $335.00 · Bull $380.00 · Bear $270.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
49 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-05 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-30 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-30 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-11-01 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-30
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-30
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-30. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $416.39
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d +0.4
Value48 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment37 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Bullish). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
49Non-qualifying2026-11-05 amc
Natera's Q2 release showed a 21.2% increase in reported tests and raised 2026 revenue outlook, supporting business momentum; its stock was up over the five sessions through Oct 30 and had a strong Oct 29 close. But checked estimate sources disagree on consensus revenue/EPS and did not establish positive estimate revisions or a positive whisper gap, while the largest recent volume spike came on a sharp down day. These gaps keep it below the screen threshold.
Screen as of 2026-11-01. Window 2026-11-02 to 2026-11-06.
Confirming evidence
- • 3 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-10-31.
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
- • Pre-earnings setup: 49 / non-qualifying.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Gross margin remains sensitive to revenue-accrual estimates and cost-of-revenue execution.
- • Post-earnings momentum may reverse if future volume or oncology growth fails to sustain the current pace.
- • The post-print rally may have discounted much of the guidance increase.
Catalyst clock
2026-11-05 · AMC
Q2 2026 results and raised revenue outlook
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
98
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.0
Value
48
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.2
Sentiment
37
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-5.1
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 97.5 / Value 47.8 / Sentiment 36.5
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$335.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$270.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-30
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-30
Market Cap
$59.72B
Beta
1.63
Shares Out
144.14M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-272.1
P/S (TTM)
15.61
P/FCF (TTM)
353.07
Rev YoY
+37.7%
EPS YoY
-36.8%
Gross Margin
+64.7%
Op Margin
-10.6%
Net Debt
-$861.76M
Current Ratio
3.00
As of 2026-10-30 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data