B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NSP
InsperityFNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 showed meaningful sequential stabilization: gross profit decline moderated, pricing and contract changes helped benefits-cost recovery, and ex-restructuring operating expenses were better than expected. If Q2 confirms margin repair while WSEE erosion bottoms, the post-earnings selloff may prove excessive relative to the packet’s median target near $40.5.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Average paid WSEEs fell 1% year over year in Q1, so margin recovery is still being asked to offset weak client-employee volume [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
79
Value
46
Sentiment
9
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.75
Why
Momentum79 · Δ7d -2.0
Value46 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment9 · Δ7d -5.8
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Average paid WSEEs fell 1% year over year in Q1, so margin recovery is still being asked to offset weak client-employee volume [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Benefits-cost and health-insurance trend risk remains important even after Q1 improvement; the business is still exposed to claims-cost volatility and carrier contract execution [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-K-2026-02-11].
- • The bearish read is that the key operating volume metric is still shrinking, full-year EPS guidance was reset lower, and the earnings release still leans on pricing and cost actions more than organic client growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-10-29 · BMO
Workforce realignment and cost actions need to convert into cleaner operating leverage
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
79
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-2.0
Δ21d
+8.2
Value
46
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.8
Sentiment
9
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.8
Δ21d
-10.9
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 78.6 / Value 45.9 / Sentiment 9.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$1.98B
Beta
0.47
Shares Out
38.2M
P/E (TTM)
94.7
P/S (TTM)
0.24
P/FCF (TTM)
341.60
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
-178.0%
Gross Margin
+12.3%
Op Margin
-0.0%
Net Debt
-$288M
Current Ratio
1.11
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data