B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$36.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NSP
InsperityFNYSE / Commercial & Professional Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish read is that Q1 showed meaningful sequential stabilization: gross profit decline moderated, pricing and contract changes helped benefits-cost recovery, and ex-restructuring operating expenses were better than expected. If Q2 confirms margin repair while WSEE erosion bottoms, the post-earnings selloff may prove excessive relative to the packet’s median target near $40.5.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
What can break
Average paid WSEEs fell 1% year over year in Q1, so margin recovery is still being asked to offset weak client-employee volume [#8-K-2026-04-30].
Momentum
87
Value
47
Sentiment
12
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $30.00 · Bull $36.00 · Bear $22.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $51.75
Why
Momentum87 · Δ7d +2.3
Value47 · Δ7d -0.2
Sentiment12 · Δ7d +4.5
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Average paid WSEEs fell 1% year over year in Q1, so margin recovery is still being asked to offset weak client-employee volume [#8-K-2026-04-30].
- • Benefits-cost and health-insurance trend risk remains important even after Q1 improvement; the business is still exposed to claims-cost volatility and carrier contract execution [#8-K-2026-04-30] [#10-K-2026-02-11].
- • The bearish read is that the key operating volume metric is still shrinking, full-year EPS guidance was reset lower, and the earnings release still leans on pricing and cost actions more than organic client growth.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-30
Workforce realignment and cost actions need to convert into cleaner operating leverage
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
87
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+2.3
Δ21d
-5.3
Value
47
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.2
Δ21d
+10.3
Sentiment
12
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.5
Δ21d
+6.2
Why this grade
Composite grade F. Momentum 86.9 / Value 46.5 / Sentiment 11.6
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$30.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$22.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$1.93B
Beta
0.47
Shares Out
38.2M
P/E (TTM)
94.7
P/S (TTM)
0.24
P/FCF (TTM)
341.60
Rev YoY
+1.7%
EPS YoY
-178.0%
Gross Margin
+12.3%
Op Margin
-0.0%
Net Debt
-$288M
Current Ratio
1.11
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data