NP

Neptune Insurance came into this Q3 2026 report with a premium valuation and a reputation as a high growth, AI powered flood insurer. The share price has slipped 3.7% since the release, yet the headline number tells a different story. Revenue reached US$59.6m for the quarter and adjusted EBITDA hit US$36.8m, with margins around 62%. That kind of profitability shift sits at the center of today's expectation gap, as a richly priced insurance stock sells off on a day when its strongest positive trend is earnings power rather than pure top line hype. Love Neptune Insurance's rich margins but uneasy about paying a premium for a stock that just sold off on an earnings beat story built on profitability rather than hype? Compare that setup with our 33 high quality undervalued stocks for ideas that pair strong fundamentals with less demanding valuations. - Revenue (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$59.567m vs. US$44.365m (higher, reflecting a stronger top line for Neptune Insurance) - Net Income, Excl. Extra Items (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$17.256m vs. US$5.493m (higher, showing a much stronger profit result) - Basic EPS (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): US$0.1249 vs. US$0.0588 (higher, indicating improved earnings per share for shareholders) - Adjusted EBITDA Margin (Q3 2026 vs. Q3 2025): approximately 62% vs. approximately 60% (slightly higher margin, pointing to stronger underlying profitability) Skip the headline growth rates. Ask Charlie what Neptune Insurance's AI is really changing. Supporters argue Neptune Insurance is building a self reinforcing AI and distribution engine that can compound earnings without heavy capital. That thesis hinges on AI driven underwriting and broad coverage doing the heavy lifting. "AI driven underwriting and pricing, including the rewritten Triton engine and targeted machine learning models for quote conversion and renewals, can support efficient policy growth while holding headcount and operating costs relatively steady." The latest quarter moves this claim from theory to scoreboard. Revenue rose 34% year on year while adjusted EBITDA climbed 38%, and margin edged higher to roughly 62%. Management reported engineering output at 2.5x with roughly flat staffing and service productivity up 50%. Those are concrete efficiency gains, not just marketing language. That disagreement has a full argument behind it. → Uncover the higher Fair Value this Narrative argues for. Critics worry Neptune Insurance will eventually need to spend heavily just to keep its AI and infrastructure current, which could cap profitability even if revenue continues to grow. That concern shows up clearly here. "Although Neptune's AI first underwriting and machine learning models currently support high revenue per employee and a 60% adjusted EBITDA margin, continued investment in public company infrastructure, model development and cloud costs could limit further margin expansion and keep earnings growth closer to revenue growth." This quarter, adjusted EBITDA margin was near 62%, and management raised 2026 and 2027 margin targets to about 61%. The feared margin ceiling is not yet apparent, although it could still emerge as the business matures. Neptune Insurance Holdings recently showed that earnings strength and share price can briefly move in different directions. The real opportunity is finding stocks that could be undervalued before closer scrutiny narrows the gap. - Company 1 - 47% below our estimate - turns record mechanical and electrical project backlog from data center work into higher utilization and improved margins. - Company 2 - 29% below our estimate - converts complex aerospace, medical and industrial design wins into long-running manufacturing programs using disciplined cash cycles. - Company 3 - 46% below our estimate - folds a newly acquired regional lender into a broader branch and digital network to deepen low cost deposits and fee income. Those are three of them. See every one of the 33 undervalued companies on it → This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned. Companies discussed in this article include NP. Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email [email protected]

This article first appeared on GuruFocus. - Revenue: $59.6 million in Q3, up 34% year over year. - Adjusted EBITDA: Record $36.8 million, up 38% year over year. - Adjusted EBITDA Margin: 62%, an improvement of 147 basis points from a year ago. - Premium in Force: $450 million, up 32% year over year. - Policies in Force: More than 336,000, up 29% year over year. - New Business Premium: Up 51% year over year in Q3. - Revenue Retention Rate: Approximately 89% over the last 12 months. - Operating Cash Flow: $25.9 million in Q3; $69.3 million for the first nine months of the year. - Revenue per Employee: Approximately $3.2 million over the last 12 months. - Adjusted EBITDA per Employee: Approximately $2 million over the last 12 months. - Net Leverage Ratio: Approximately 1.7 times, down from 2.9 times a year ago. - Revolver Outstanding: $215 million at quarter end. - Full-Year 2026 Revenue Guidance: Raised to $204 million (approximately 28% year-over-year growth), with adjusted EBITDA margin above 61%. - Full-Year 2027 Revenue Guidance: Approximately $238 million, with adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 61%. - Warning! GuruFocus has detected 4 Warning Signs with BOKF. - Is NP fairly valued? Test your thesis with our free DCF calculator. Release Date: October 20, 2026 For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript. - Revenue grew 34% year over year to $59.6 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 38% to $36.8 million, achieving a 62% margin. - Premium in force increased 32% to $450 million, and policies in force rose 29% to over 336,000. - New business premium surged 51% year over year, demonstrating strong underlying demand despite a soft insurance market and weak housing market. - Atlas Plus AI tool drove 3.5x higher bind rates for quotes involving the platform, enhancing agent productivity and sales effectiveness. - Operating leverage is evident with revenue per employee at $3.2 million and adjusted EBITDA per employee at $2 million, while headcount remained flat at 59 employees. - Revenue retention rate declined to 89% from low 90s a year ago, partly due to pricing strategies that prioritize volume over price increases. - The housing market remains weak and there have been two consecutive years without a major hurricane, creating headwinds for new business demand. - Direct-to-consumer AI agent interactions are currently immaterial, indicating slow adoption of AI-driven insurance purchases. - Premium per policy grew only 2% year over year, impacted by mix shift toward lower-priced policies. - The company faces potential regulatory changes at FEMA/NFIP that could impact the market, though no immediate changes are expected. Q: With AI potentially lowering distribution costs over time, how beneficial could this be to Neptune's expense levels and margins? A: CEO Trevor Burgess explained that while the transition will be slow, it could be very profitable. He cited the UK market, where 60-70% of homeowners buy policies through comparative raters, paying a one-time fee of about GBP50 versus the average 13% annual commission paid to agents in the US. Since distribution is Neptune's largest expense category, a shift toward AI-driven purchasing would dramatically reduce costs and benefit margins. Q: Can you discuss the drivers behind the raised 2026 guidance and the initial 2027 outlook, particularly regarding new products and inorganic growth? A: CEO Trevor Burgess attributed the outperformance to the distribution team's success in adding and deepening agency relationships, and to technology like Atlas Plus making agents more productive. He noted the 2027 guidance excludes inorganic growth and substantial contributions from new products, but highlighted the upcoming full launch of the earthquake product and ongoing evaluation of M&A opportunities that meet their strict criteria. Q: What competitive advantages does Neptune have that are hardest for new carriers in the flood market to replicate? A: CEO Trevor Burgess stated that competitors' APIs are often just connected to a spreadsheet, lacking Neptune's sophisticated underwriting based on nearly 40 million quotes and extensive claims data. He also emphasized Neptune's deep distribution relationships, noting that some of their largest distributors have actually reduced the number of private flood offerings they use, favoring Neptune. Q: Given the strong Q3 results, is it possible that EBITDA margins could exceed 62% in the not-too-distant future? A: CEO Trevor Burgess noted that Q3's margin was already 61.7%, but pointed out seasonality, as Q1 has the same costs but lower sales. He expressed hope for continued margin growth, driven partly by AI. He mentioned buying AI for customer service to handle a majority of emails, which would improve efficiency over time, making higher margins possible. Q: Can you provide more color on the 38.7 million cumulative quotes and the low conversion to policies in force? A: CEO Trevor Burgess explained that while their API allows large partners to run a flood quote with every homeowner's quote, it doesn't guarantee agents will present it. He noted that top-performing agents who consistently offer the quote have a bind ratio 5-8 times higher than those who don't. The goal of Atlas Plus is to change agent behavior and increase this quote-to-bind ratio over time. Q: What is the rollout plan for the new earthquake product? A: CEO Trevor Burgess outlined a multi-step launch. It began in beta in California via the agent portal. The next step, now underway, is cross-selling, where an earthquake quote is automatically shown when an agent runs a flood quote. This will be followed by API availability for large partners and then a direct-to-consumer portal. The product is expected to be fully launched by the end of the year. Q: How well-positioned is Neptune for a world with more price transparency driven by AI? A: CEO Trevor Burgess sees this as a tremendous opportunity. He believes AI will educate millions of Americans about their flood risk, expanding the market from 4 million to 25 million policies. Furthermore, he noted that 1.7 million NFIP policyholders could save money by switching to Neptune, and Neptune is the only one with the capacity to serve that potential demand. Q: Can you discuss the recent CFO transition and the reasons behind the timing? A: CEO Trevor Burgess explained that after 10 years, the company needs more senior-level help. Jim Steiner is transitioning to a full-time COO role to focus on automating operations with technology. The new CFO, Christian Milege, is a known quantity who previously worked with the team and has a deep understanding of Neptune as the former chair of its audit committee. Jim Steiner added he is comfortable handing over the reins. Q: What is driving the strong new business premium growth of 51% despite a weak housing market and no major hurricanes? A: President and Chief Risk Officer Matt Duffy attributed the growth to expanding the market by selling to homes that have never had flood insurance. He noted that the total addressable market is huge, with 25 million buildings at moderate to severe risk and a very low take-up rate today. The growth is coming from continued penetration into this large, underinsured market. Q: Can you provide an update on the commission income metric and the impact of renewing capacity programs? A: President and Chief Risk Officer Matt Duffy stated that capacity program renewals are spread throughout the year. He noted that a Q4 renewal will remove contingent commissions and include favorable increases in ceding commissions. He believes the current level is a good run rate for the near term, with potential for further upside as they continue to prove out the model with capacity partners. Q: What is the latest on the revenue retention rate, which has dipped from the low 90s to 89%? A: CEO Trevor Burgess explained the trade-off between price and volume. Because of strong underwriting results, Neptune hasn't needed to push prices much, which has helped new business growth. He noted that this approach means they may not push price as much at renewal, leading to small variations in the retention rate as they focus on the lifetime value of a customer. Q: How much did the Palomar agreement contribute to the strong Q3 revenue growth? A: President and Chief Risk Officer Matt Duffy clarified that Q3 revenue growth was 34%, and without the Palomar deal, it would have been 30%. He emphasized that the company is still growing very rapidly outside of that relationship and that it has been a successful use case for both parties. For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Our analysts just identified a stock with the potential to be the next Nvidia. Tell us how you invest and we'll show you why it's our #1 pick. Tap here. - Revenue growth of 34% was driven by the expansion of the distribution network and increased agent productivity rather than favorable external market conditions. - Management reported that premium in force grew 32% year-over-year while maintaining exceptional profitability, achieving a Rule of 40 score of 94., where technology allows the firm to scale revenue significantly faster than headcount. - The Atlas+ AI platform has become a critical sales catalyst, with quotes involving the tool binding at 3.5 times the rate of those without AI interaction. - Operational leverage is being realized through extreme automation, evidenced by a 50% year-over-year productivity improvement in the service organization to one representative per 30,000 policies. - Strategic positioning focuses on closing the 'protection gap,' targeting the 21 million high-risk U.S. properties that currently lack flood insurance coverage. - Capacity relationships have strengthened, with recent renewals occurring on improved terms and the elimination of contingent commissions across all active programs. - Initial 2027 revenue guidance of approximately $238 million assumes no recovery in the housing market and a standard hurricane season, reflecting a conservative baseline. - Management expects Adjusted EBITDA margins to remain stable at approximately 61%, balancing high profitability with continued platform investment. - The formal launch of an indemnity earthquake product in Q4 2026 represents a strategic move to apply Neptune's AI-native underwriting to adjacent climate-related perils. - Future margin expansion is expected to be driven by a gradual shift toward direct-to-consumer AI-assisted transactions, which could significantly lower the current 13% annual distribution commission costs. - The company maintains a low Total Net Leverage Ratio of 1.7 times to preserve flexibility for opportunistic share repurchases or strategic M&A that meets strict organic growth hurdles. - A leadership transition is underway where Audit Committee Chair Cristián Melej will join the company in January and succeed Jim Steiner as CFO following the filing of the 10-K., while Steiner remains as COO and Board Member. - Management identified a $2.6 billion annual subsidy 'burn off' within the NFIP as a long-term tailwind for private market adoption as government policies reach full risk pricing. - The housing market remains a headwind, yet the company has demonstrated the ability to grow premium in force by 32% despite slow turnover and a lack of major weather-driven demand events. - A one-time cash outflow of $14.2 million for employee tax withholding related to RSU vesting will impact Q4 cash flow but avoided further shareholder dilution. One stock. Nvidia-level potential. 30M+ investors trust Moby to find it first. Get the pick. Tap here. - Management noted that while the transition will be slow, shifting toward AI-driven direct sales could replace the current 13% annual agent commission with a lower one-time fee. - The largest expense category for the company would 'dramatically fall' if consumers move toward AI agents like ChatGPT or Muse for insurance fulfillment. - The 12-month revenue retention rate of 89% reflects a strategic trade-off where management prioritized volume and new business growth over aggressive price increases. - The company is 'tinkering' with pricing based on risk data to maximize the lifetime value of customers while maintaining a competitive edge against the NFIP. - Management argues that competitors using simple APIs often lack the sophisticated underwriting models built on Neptune's 40 million historical quotes and claims data. - Large distributors are reportedly consolidating their offerings, favoring Neptune's scale and 50-state capability over smaller private flood providers. - The move is intended to broaden the senior leadership base as the company scales, allowing Jim Steiner to focus exclusively on operational automation as COO. - The incoming CFO is a 'known quantity' who previously worked with the executive team at C1 Bank and already understands Neptune's financials via his board role.

Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.17 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.16 per share. This compares to earnings of $0.11 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +6.25%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this company would post earnings of $0.14 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.15, delivering a surprise of +7.14%. Over the last four quarters, the company has surpassed consensus EPS estimates three times. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., which belongs to the Zacks Insurance - Multi line industry, posted revenues of $59.57 million for the quarter ended September 2026, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 8.37%. This compares to year-ago revenues of $44.37 million. The company has topped consensus revenue estimates four times over the last four quarters. The sustainability of the stock's immediate price movement based on the recently-released numbers and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's commentary on the earnings call. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. shares have added about 0.5% since the beginning of the year versus the S&P 500's gain of 12.4%. While Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. has underperformed the market so far this year, the question that comes to investors' minds is: what's next for the stock? There are no easy answers to this key question, but one reliable measure that can help investors address this is the company's earnings outlook. Not only does this include current consensus earnings expectations for the coming quarter(s), but also how these expectations have changed lately. Empirical research shows a strong correlation between near-term stock movements and trends in earnings estimate revisions. Investors can track such revisions by themselves or rely on a tried-and-tested rating tool like the Zacks Rank, which has an impressive track record of harnessing the power of earnings estimate revisions. Ahead of this earnings release, the estimate revisions trend for Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. was favorable. While the magnitude and direction of estimate revisions could change following the company's just-released earnings report, the current status translates into a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) for the stock. So, the shares are expected to outperform the market in the near future. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. It will be interesting to see how estimates for the coming quarters and the current fiscal year change in the days ahead. The current consensus EPS estimate is $0.15 on $52.5 million in revenues for the coming quarter and $0.54 on $201.15 million in revenues for the current fiscal year. Investors should be mindful of the fact that the outlook for the industry can have a material impact on the performance of the stock as well. In terms of the Zacks Industry Rank, Insurance - Multi line is currently in the bottom 35% of the 250 plus Zacks industries. Our research shows that the top 50% of the Zacks-ranked industries outperform the bottom 50% by a factor of more than 2 to 1. One other stock from the same industry, Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT), is yet to report results for the quarter ended September 2026. The results are expected to be released on November 4. This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.22 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +8.9%. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has remained unchanged over the last 30 days. Enact Holdings, Inc.'s revenues are expected to be $317.86 million, up 1.1% from the year-ago quarter. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) : Free Stock Analysis Report Enact Holdings, Inc. (ACT) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla., October 20, 2026--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (the "Company") (NYSE: NP), the parent company of Neptune Flood Incorporated, has released its financial results for the third quarter of 2026 by posting an update on its Investor Relations website. The earnings presentation can be viewed by clicking here or visiting investors.neptuneflood.com. Third Quarter 2026 Highlights - Revenue growth of 34% to a record $59.6 million - Net income increase of 50% to a record $17.3 million - Net income margin of 29% - Adjusted net income* growth of 52% to a record $24.3 million - Adjusted EBITDA* growth of 38% to a record $36.8 million - Adjusted EBITDA margin of 62%, matching our record high to date - Written Premium* growth of 31% to a record $132.7 million - Record new business sales Third Quarter 2026 per share of Class A and Class B common stock | | Basic | | Diluted Net income | | $ | 0.13 | | | $ | 0.12 | Adjusted net income* | | $ | 0.18 | | | $ | 0.17 | Adjusted EBITDA* | | $ | 0.27 | | | $ | 0.25 | * See discussion of Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Key Performance Indicators below Neptune management will host a live conference call and webcast at 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, October 20th. When: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 Time: 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time Dial-in Number: (800) 715-9871 or (646) 307-1963 (international) Q3 2026 Earnings Presentation: View here Webcast: View here Investor Relations: View here The webcast will be archived on the Company's website following the call. Effectiveness of Information The targets included in our earnings presentation and the statements made during the earnings conference call, each of which is available on the Company's investor relations website at investors.neptuneflood.com (collectively, the "Earnings Materials"), represent the Company's expectations and beliefs as of October 20, 2026. Although these Earnings Materials will remain available on the Company's website through the date of the earnings call for the third quarter of fiscal 2027, their continued availability does not mean that the Company is reaffirming or confirming their continued validity. The Company undertakes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events, or to otherwise update the targets given in the Earnings Materials, except as required by law. About Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NYSE: NP) is the parent company of Neptune Flood Incorporated ("Neptune"). Neptune is a leading, AI-native managing general agent offering a range of easy-to-purchase residential and commercial insurance products, including primary and excess flood insurance, distributed through a nationwide network of agencies. Leveraging proprietary artificial intelligence and advanced data science, Neptune delivers fast and accessible coverage for residential and commercial properties across the United States. The Company operates without human underwriters, using Triton®, its cutting-edge platform to streamline underwriting, pricing, and policy issuance. Non-GAAP Financial Measures and Key Performance Indicators To supplement our condensed consolidated financial statements, which are prepared and presented in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (GAAP), we use the following non-GAAP financial measures: Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted), Adjusted net income, Adjusted earnings per share (basic and diluted), organic revenue and organic revenue growth. The presentation of these financial measures is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for, or superior to, financial information prepared and presented in accordance with GAAP. Investors are cautioned that there are material limitations associated with the use of non-GAAP financial measures as an analytical tool. In addition, these measures may be different from non-GAAP financial measures used by other companies, limiting their usefulness for comparison purposes. We compensate for these limitations by providing specific information regarding the GAAP amounts excluded from these non-GAAP financial measures. We believe these non-GAAP financial measures provide investors with useful supplemental information about the financial performance of our business, enable comparison of financial results between periods where certain items may vary independent of business performance, and allow for greater transparency with respect to key metrics used by management in operating our business. See "Non-GAAP Financial Measures" below and "Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Financial Measures" in our earnings presentation for a reconciliation of non-GAAP measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures. Adjusted EBITDA is net income (the most directly comparable GAAP measure) adjusted to exclude interest expense (net of interest income), income taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and further adjusted for share-based compensation, employer payroll taxes on equity awards and other non-recurring items. Employer payroll taxes on equity awards are cash expenses; we exclude them because their amount and timing depend on our stock price at vesting or exercise and are not driven by our operating performance. By removing these expenses, we believe Adjusted EBITDA provides a clearer representation of operating performance. Adjusted EBITDA margin is a non-GAAP financial measure derived from Adjusted EBITDA divided by revenue. We believe that Adjusted EBITDA margin is a useful measurement of operating profitability for the same reasons we find Adjusted EBITDA useful and also because it provides a period-to-period comparison of our operating performance. Adjusted net income is a non-GAAP financial measure derived from net income (the most directly comparable GAAP measure), adjusted to exclude loss on extinguishment of debt, amortization expense, share-based compensation, employer payroll taxes on equity awards, corporate transaction related expenses, and other one-time expenses, and the related tax effect of those adjustments. By removing these expenses, we believe Adjusted net income provides a clearer representation of operating performance. Adjusted earnings per share (basic and diluted) is Adjusted net income divided by the basic and diluted weighted-average shares of common stock outstanding for the period, respectively, in each case assuming the full conversion of all outstanding Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock into an equivalent number of shares of common stock, which occurred upon the consummation of our IPO in 2025. By implementing the conversion of the redeemable convertible preferred stock, we believe Adjusted earnings (basic and diluted) per share provides a clearer representation of operating performance. The most directly comparable GAAP measures are basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share, respectively. Adjusted EBITDA (Basic and Diluted) per Share is Adjusted EBITDA divided by the basic and diluted weighted-average shares of common stock outstanding for the period, respectively, in each case assuming the full conversion of all outstanding Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock into an equivalent number of shares of common stock, which occurred upon the consummation of our IPO in 2025. We believe that Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted) is a useful measurement for the same reasons we find Adjusted EBITDA useful and also because, by implementing the conversion of the Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock for periods prior to our IPO, we believe Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted) provides a clearer representation of operating performance on a per-share and period-over-period basis. The most directly comparable GAAP measures are basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share, respectively. Additionally, we discuss certain key performance indicators, described below, which provide useful information about the Company's business and the operational factors underlying the Company's financial performance. Written Premium is the total premium we placed with insurance programs during a reporting period, less "return premiums" refunded to policyholders due to cancellations, endorsement of policies, or otherwise. We believe written premium is an appropriate measure of operating performance because it is the primary driver of our commission revenue. Revenue per Employee is revenue for the trailing four quarters, determined in accordance with GAAP, divided by the average number of employees during the trailing four quarters. We monitor this as a metric of scaling growth and believe it to be a leading indicator of sustained profitability and efficiency. Adjusted EBITDA per employee is Adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP metric, for the trailing four quarters divided by the average number of employees during the trailing four quarters. We monitor this as a metric of scaling growth and believe it to be a leading indicator of sustained profitability and efficiency. For further discussion on our calculation of Adjusted EBITDA, see "Adjusted EBITDA" above. Policy Retention Rate is the percentage of our policyholders who receive renewal offers and who accept the offered renewal term. We monitor the acceptance of renewal offers as an early indicator of price elasticity. Premium Retention Rate is the premium associated with those accepted renewal offers, as a percentage of the total premium from expiring policies for which renewal offers were made. Revenue Retention Rate is the percentage of revenue recognized on policies in a given period that is recognized under the renewal terms of those same policies in the subsequent period. We monitor this metric as a comprehensive indicator of renewal performance and the long-term stability of our revenue base, as it reflects the combined effect of policy retention, premium changes, and policy fee income. Organic revenue and organic revenue growth: We define organic revenue as total revenue determined in accordance with GAAP, adjusted to remove the impact of any acquisitions or divestitures. We define organic revenue growth as the year-over-year growth in our organic revenue. However, as of the date of this press release and our earnings presentation and for the relevant periods presented herein and therein, we have not completed any relevant acquisitions or divestitures, therefore our organic revenue and organic revenue growth reflect our total revenue and total revenue growth, respectively, as determined in accordance with GAAP. Organic revenue and organic revenue growth are also non-GAAP financial measures which are commonly reported by others in the insurance industry. We use "organic revenue" and "organic revenue growth" in this press release and our earnings presentation to facilitate investors' understanding of our operating performance and comparison with our peers. Safe Harbor Statement This press release, our earnings presentation, and the earnings conference call contain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 that involve substantial risks and uncertainties. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included in this release, are forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements give our current expectations relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance, and business. You can identify forward-looking statements by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. In some cases, you can identify these statements by forward-looking words such as "may," "might," "will," "should," "expects," "plans," "anticipates," "believes," "estimates," "outlook," "predicts," "potential," or "continue," the negative of these terms, and other comparable terminology. These forward-looking statements, which are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions about us, include, among others, projections of our future financial performance, our anticipated growth and business strategies, anticipated trends in our business, capital allocation plans, technology initiatives, and other future events or developments. These statements are only predictions based on our current expectations and projections about future events. There are important factors that could cause our actual results, level of activity, performance, or achievements to differ materially from the results, level of activity, performance, or achievements expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements, including those factors discussed under the captions entitled "Risk Factors" and "Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations" in the Company's Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025, the Company's Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, once filed, and the other documents that the Company files with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, which are available free of charge on the SEC's website at: www.sec.gov and on Neptune's investor relations website at investors.neptuneflood.com. Although we believe the expectations reflected in the forward-looking statements are reasonable, we cannot guarantee future results, level of activity, performance, or achievements. Moreover, neither we nor any other person assumes responsibility for the accuracy and completeness of any of these forward-looking statements. We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future developments, or otherwise, except as may be required by law. NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES Adjusted EBITDA and Adjusted EBITDA margin Below is a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income (the most directly comparable GAAP measure), as well as our Adjusted EBITDA margin to net income margin (the most directly comparable GAAP measure), for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively, and for the twelve months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively: | | Three Months Ended September 30, | | | | Nine Months Ended September 30, | | (In thousands) | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change %/pp | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change %/pp Total revenues | | $ | 59,567 | | | $ | 44,365 | | | 34.3 | % | | $ | 153,234 | | | $ | 115,784 | | | 32.3 | % Net income | | | 17,256 | | | | 11,511 | | | 49.9 | % | | | 40,401 | | | | 33,070 | | | 22.2 | % Interest expense (net of interest income) | | | 3,250 | | | | 5,237 | | | (37.9 | %) | | | 9,981 | | | | 13,090 | | | (23.8 | %) Income tax expense | | | 7,459 | | | | 3,952 | | | 88.7 | % | | | 17,575 | | | | 11,457 | | | 53.4 | % Amortization expense | | | 992 | | | | 948 | | | 4.6 | % | | | 3,013 | | | | 2,734 | | | 10.2 | % Share-based compensation | | | 7,009 | | | | 111 | | | NM | | | | 20,832 | | | | 299 | | | NM | Employer payroll taxes on equity awards | | | 622 | | | | — | | | NM | | | | 667 | | | | — | | | NM | Corporate transaction related expenses | | | 172 | | | | 4,966 | | | NM | | | | 239 | | | | 8,440 | | | NM | One-time expenses | | | — | | | | — | | | NM | | | | 74 | | | | — | | | NM | Adjusted EBITDA | | $ | 36,760 | | | $ | 26,725 | | | 37.5 | % | | $ | 92,782 | | | $ | 69,090 | | | 34.3 | % Net income margin(1) | | | 29.0 | % | | | 25.9 | % | | 3.1 | | | | 26.4 | % | | | 28.6 | % | | (2.2 | ) Adjusted EBITDA margin(1) | | | 61.7 | % | | | 60.2 | % | | 1.5 | | | | 60.5 | % | | | 59.7 | % | | 0.8 | | | Twelve Months EndedSeptember 30, | | (In thousands) | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change %/pp Total revenues | | $ | 197,001 | | | $ | 147,287 | | | 33.8 | % Net income | | | 44,743 | | | | 44,682 | | | 0.1 | % Interest expense (net of interest income) | | | 14,210 | | | | 16,006 | | | (11.2 | )% Income tax expense | | | 22,341 | | | | 15,319 | | | 45.8 | % Amortization expense | | | 3,992 | | | | 3,554 | | | 12.3 | % Share-based compensation | | | 31,954 | | | | 378 | | | NM | Employer payroll taxes on equity awards | | | 667 | | | | — | | | NM | Corporate transaction related expenses | | | 711 | | | | 8,440 | | | NM | One-time expenses | | | 74 | | | | — | | | NM | Adjusted EBITDA | | $ | 118,692 | | | $ | 88,379 | | | 34.3 | % Net income margin(1) | | | 22.7 | % | | | 30.3 | % | | (7.6 | ) Adjusted EBITDA margin(1) | | | 60.2 | % | | | 60.0 | % | | 0.2 | NM - not meaningful (1) Year-over-year changes in percentages are reported in percentage points (pp). | | Twelve Months EndedSeptember 30, | | Change (In thousands) | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Amount | | Percentage Average number of employees | | | 60.8 | | | | 58.0 | | | | 2.8 | | | 4.8 | % Total revenues | | $ | 197,001 | | | $ | 147,287 | | | $ | 49,714 | | | 33.8 | % Revenue per employee | | $ | 3,242 | | | $ | 2,539 | | | $ | 703 | | | 27.7 | % Adjusted EBITDA | | $ | 118,692 | | | $ | 88,379 | | | $ | 30,313 | | | 34.3 | % Adjusted EBITDA per employee | | $ | 1,953 | | | $ | 1,524 | | | $ | 429 | | | 28.2 | % Adjusted EBITDA (Basic and Diluted) per Share The table below presents a reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net income (the most directly comparable GAAP measure), as well as our Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted) to basic earnings per share and diluted earnings per share of common stock, respectively (the most directly comparable GAAP measures), for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively: | | Three Months Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, (In thousands, except share and per share data) | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change % | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change % | | | | | | | | | | | | Net income | | | 17,256 | | | | 11,511 | | | 49.9 | % | | | 40,401 | | | | 33,070 | | | 22.2 | % Interest expense (net of interest income) | | | 3,250 | | | | 5,237 | | | | | | 9,981 | | | | 13,090 | | | Income tax expense | | | 7,459 | | | | 3,952 | | | | | | 17,575 | | | | 11,457 | | | Amortization expense | | | 992 | | | | 948 | | | | | | 3,013 | | | | 2,734 | | | Share-based compensation | | | 7,009 | | | | 111 | | | | | | 20,832 | | | | 299 | | | Employer payroll taxes on equity awards | | | 622 | | | | — | | | | | | 667 | | | | — | | | Corporate transaction related expenses | | | 172 | | | | 4,966 | | | | | | 239 | | | | 8,440 | | | One-time expenses | | | — | | | | — | | | | | | 74 | | | | — | | | Adjusted EBITDA | | $ | 36,760 | | | $ | 26,725 | | | 37.5 | % | | $ | 92,782 | | | $ | 69,090 | | | 34.3 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Basic | | | 137,272,630 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | | | | 137,768,674 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | Plus: Impact of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(1) | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | Adjusted Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Basic | | | 137,272,630 | | | | 135,200,000 | | | | | | 137,768,674 | | | | 135,200,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Basic earnings (loss) per share | | $ | 0.13 | | | $ | 0.06 | | | | | $ | 0.29 | | | $ | (0.34 | ) | | Effect of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock and net loss attributable to preferred stock holders(2) | | | — | | | | 0.06 | | | | | | — | | | | 0.68 | | | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) per share(3) | | | 0.14 | | | | 0.08 | | | | | | 0.38 | | | | 0.17 | | | Adjusted basic EBITDA per share(4) | | $ | 0.27 | | | $ | 0.20 | | | | | $ | 0.67 | | | $ | 0.51 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Diluted | | | 146,390,991 | | | | 97,262,548 | | | | | | 146,110,446 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | Plus: Impact of dilutive stock options(5) | | | — | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | 2,409,232 | | | Plus: Impact of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(1) | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | Adjusted weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Diluted | | | 146,390,991 | | | | 139,112,548 | | | | | | 146,110,446 | | | | 137,609,232 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diluted earnings (loss) per share | | $ | 0.12 | | | $ | 0.06 | | | | | $ | 0.28 | | | $ | (0.34 | ) | | Effect of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(2) | | | — | | | | 0.05 | | | | | | — | | | | 0.66 | | | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) per share(3) | | | 0.13 | | | | 0.08 | | | | | | 0.36 | | | | 0.18 | | | Adjusted diluted EBITDA per share(4) | | $ | 0.25 | | | $ | 0.19 | | | | | $ | 0.64 | | | $ | 0.50 | | | (1) | Assumes the conversion of all 41,850,000 shares of Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock into an equivalent number of shares of common stock. (2) | Pursuant to the completion of the Company's IPO on October 2, 2025, the redeemable, convertible preferred stock was no longer outstanding for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. For comparability purposes, this calculation reflects net income that would be distributable to holders of common stock, assuming all redeemable preferred shares had been converted and no longer impacted the numerator. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, this includes $3.6 million of accretion adjustments and $2.5 million of allocations to participating preferred stock. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, this includes $54.2 million of cash dividends paid on redeemable preferred stock and $10.4 million of accretion adjustments, totaling $64.6 million. These adjustments were divided by 93,350,000 shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 to calculate the Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted) amounts. (3) | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) per share represent interest expense (net of interest income), income tax expense, amortization expense, share-based compensation, employer payroll taxes on equity awards, corporate transaction related expenses, and one-time expenses. (4) | Adjusted EBITDA per share (basic and diluted) is calculated as Adjusted EBITDA divided by the applicable adjusted weighted-average shares of common stock outstanding. Individual per-share components above may not sum exactly to the total due to rounding. (5) | Represents the impact of 2,409,232 stock options that were not included in the GAAP diluted weighted-average common stock outstanding for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, but are included for purposes of Adjusted diluted EBITDA per share. Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Earnings (Basic and Diluted) Per Share The table below presents a reconciliation of Adjusted net income to net income (the most directly comparable GAAP measure), as well as our Adjusted earnings (basic and diluted) per share to basic earnings and diluted earnings per share of common stock, respectively (the most directly comparable GAAP measures), for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively: | | Three Months Ended September 30, | | Nine Months Ended September 30, (In thousands, except share and per share data) | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change % | | | 2026 | | | | 2025 | | | Change % | | | | | | | | | | | | Net income | | | 17,256 | | | | 11,511 | | | 49.9 | % | | | 40,401 | | | | 33,070 | | | 22.2 | % Income tax expense | | | 7,459 | | | | 3,952 | | | | | | 17,575 | | | | 11,457 | | | Amortization expense | | | 992 | | | | 948 | | | | | | 3,013 | | | | 2,734 | | | Share-based compensation | | | 7,009 | | | | 111 | | | | | | 20,832 | | | | 299 | | | Employer payroll taxes on equity awards | | | 622 | | | | — | | | | | | 667 | | | | — | | | Corporate transaction related expenses | | | 172 | | | | 4,966 | | | | | | 239 | | | | 8,440 | | | One-time expenses | | | — | | | | — | | | | | | 74 | | | | — | | | Adjusted income before income tax expense | | $ | 33,510 | | | $ | 21,488 | | | 55.9 | % | | $ | 82,801 | | | $ | 56,000 | | | 47.9 | % Adjusted income taxes (1) | | $ | (9,234 | ) | | $ | (5,492 | ) | | | | $ | (22,511 | ) | | $ | (14,392 | ) | | Adjusted net income | | $ | 24,276 | | | $ | 15,996 | | | 51.8 | % | | $ | 60,290 | | | $ | 41,608 | | | 44.9 | % | | | | | | | | | | | | Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Basic | | | 137,272,630 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | | | | 137,768,674 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | Plus: Impact of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(2) | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | Adjusted Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Basic | | | 137,272,630 | | | | 135,200,000 | | | | | | 137,768,674 | | | | 135,200,000 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Basic earnings (loss) per share | | $ | 0.13 | | | $ | 0.06 | | | | | $ | 0.29 | | | $ | (0.34 | ) | | Effect of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock and net loss attributable to preferred stock holders(3) | | | — | | | | 0.06 | | | | | | — | | | | 0.68 | | | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) per share(4) | | | 0.12 | | | | 0.04 | | | | | | 0.31 | | | | 0.08 | | | Adjusted income taxes per share | | | (0.07 | ) | | | (0.04 | ) | | | | | (0.16 | ) | | | (0.11 | ) | | Adjusted basic earnings per share(5) | | $ | 0.18 | | | $ | 0.12 | | | | | $ | 0.44 | | | $ | 0.31 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Diluted | | | 146,390,991 | | | | 97,262,548 | | | | | | 146,110,446 | | | | 93,350,000 | | | Plus: Impact of dilutive stock options(6) | | | — | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | 2,409,232 | | | Plus: Impact of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(2) | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | | | | — | | | | 41,850,000 | | | Adjusted weighted average Common Stock outstanding – Diluted | | | 146,390,991 | | | | 139,112,548 | | | | | | 146,110,446 | | | | 137,609,232 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | Diluted earnings (loss) per share | | $ | 0.12 | | | $ | 0.06 | | | | | $ | 0.28 | | | $ | (0.34 | ) | | Effect of conversion of redeemable, convertible preferred stock(3) | | | — | | | | 0.05 | | | | | | — | | | | 0.66 | | | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) per share(4) | | | 0.11 | | | | 0.04 | | | | | | 0.28 | | | | 0.08 | | | Adjusted income taxes per share | | | (0.06 | ) | | | (0.04 | ) | | | | | (0.15 | ) | | | (0.10 | ) | | Adjusted diluted earnings per share(5) | | $ | 0.17 | | | $ | 0.11 | | | | | $ | 0.41 | | | $ | 0.30 | | | (1) | This represents the tax impact using effective tax rates of 27.6% and 25.6% for the three months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively, and 27.2% and 25.7% for the nine months ended September 30, 2026 and 2025, respectively. These tax rates exclude items that are non-deductible, non-taxable or subject to a specific tax treatment. (2) | Assumes the conversion of all 41,850,000 shares of Redeemable Convertible Preferred Stock into an equivalent number of shares of common stock. (3) | Pursuant to the completion of the Company's IPO on October 2, 2025, the redeemable, convertible preferred stock was no longer outstanding for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2026. For comparability purposes, this calculation reflects net income that would be distributable to holders of common stock, assuming all redeemable preferred shares had been converted and no longer impacted the numerator. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, this includes $3.6 million of accretion adjustments and $2.5 million of allocations to participating preferred stock. For the nine months ended September 30, 2025, this includes $54.2 million of cash dividends paid on redeemable preferred stock and $10.4 million of accretion adjustments, totaling $64.6 million. These adjustments were divided by 93,350,000 shares for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025 to calculate the Adjusted earnings (basic and diluted) per share amounts. (4) | Other adjustments to earnings (loss) represent income tax expense, amortization expense, share-based compensation, employer payroll taxes on equity awards, corporate transaction related expenses, and one-time expenses. (5) | Adjusted earnings per share is calculated as Adjusted net income divided by the applicable weighted average shares outstanding. Individual per-share components above may not sum exactly to the total due to rounding. (6) | Represents the impact of 2,409,232 stock options that were not included in the GAAP diluted weighted-average common stock outstanding for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, but are included for purposes of Adjusted diluted earnings per share. View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20261020665647/en/ Contacts Press Contact [email protected] Investor Relations Contact [email protected]

Technology-driven insurance provider Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. NP is set to report third-quarter 2026 results on Oct. 20, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter's earnings is currently pegged at 16 cents per shareon revenues of $54.97 million. The third-quarter earnings estimate has remained stable over the past 60 days. The bottom-line projection indicates a year-over-year jump of 45.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for quarterly revenues implies year-over-year growth of 23.9%. Image Source: Zacks Investment Research For full-year 2026, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for Neptune's revenues is pegged at $201.15 million, implying an increase of 26.1% year over year. Also, the consensus mark for the current year EPS is pegged at 54 cents, signaling a rise of around 31.7% on a year-over-year basis. NP's earnings beat the consensus estimate in two of the past four quarters, met once and missed on the other occasion, with the average surprise being 2.2%. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. price-eps-surprise | Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. Quote Our proven model predicts a likely earnings beat for the company this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. That is precisely the case here. Neptune has an Earnings ESP of +1.82% and carries a Zacks Rank #2 at present. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they're reported with our Earnings ESP Filter. Neptune is expected to post solid third-quarter growth, supported by an increase in policies in force, higher revenue per employee and a larger workforce. The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects commission income to rise 23.6% year over year to $41.93 million, while fee income is expected to grow 22.4% to $12.79 million. Growth in policies in force is another positive. The period-end figure is expected to reach 323,300, up 2.3% from the previous quarter. This is likely to lift premium in force to $432.7 million, a 3.3% sequential increase. Neptune is also expected to see better workforce productivity, with revenue per employee projected to increase 15.1% year over year. The average number of employees is expected to grow 13.8% from the year-ago quarter, further supporting business expansion. Together, these trends could help Neptune deliver year-over-year growth and beat earnings expectations. However, higher operating expenses, driven by increased commissions and general and administrative costs, could partly offset some of the gains. Here are some other companies worth considering from the broader insurance space, as our model shows that these, too, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this time around: MetLife, Inc. MET has an Earnings ESP of +1.90% and a Zacks Rank of 2. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank stocks here. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for MetLife's bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $2.65 per share, up 13.3% from a year ago. The consensus estimate for MET's revenues is pegged at $20.07 billion, indicating 12.1% year-over-year growth. Prudential Financial, Inc. PRU has an Earnings ESP of +0.39% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Prudential Financial's bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.47 per share, which witnessed six upward estimate revisions over the past 60 days against one downward movement. The consensus estimate for PRU's revenues is pegged at $14.60 billion. Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company WTW has an Earnings ESP of +0.52% and a Zacks Rank #3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Willis Towers' bottom line for the to-be-reported quarter is pegged at $3.60 per share, which indicates 17.3% year-over-year growth. The consensus estimate for WTW's revenues is pegged at $2.48 billion, an 8.3% increase from a year ago. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) : Free Stock Analysis Report MetLife, Inc. (MET) : Free Stock Analysis Report Prudential Financial, Inc. (PRU) : Free Stock Analysis Report Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company (WTW) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research

The market expects Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended September 2026. This widely-known consensus outlook is important in assessing the company's earnings picture, but a powerful factor that might influence its near-term stock price is how the actual results compare to these estimates. The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report, which is expected to be released on October 20. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower. While the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations will mostly depend on management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call, it's worth handicapping the probability of a positive EPS surprise. This company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $0.16 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +45.5%. Revenues are expected to be $54.97 million, up 23.9% from the year-ago quarter. The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 1.64% higher over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period. Investors should keep in mind that an aggregate change may not always reflect the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts. Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. This insight is at the core of our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction). The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier. Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only. A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP. Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell). For Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc., the Most Accurate Estimate is higher than the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that analysts have recently become bullish on the company's earnings prospects. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of +1.82%. On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #2. So, this combination indicates that Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number. For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. would post earnings of $0.14 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.15, delivering a surprise of +7.14%. Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times. An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss. That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported. Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. appears a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release. Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc. (NP) : Free Stock Analysis Report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com). Zacks Investment Research