NMRA

Neumora TherapeuticsA

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$2.25

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$1.10

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$0.45

Analysis reference price unavailable

Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

The current persistence contract does not provide an exact AI reference price. RankAlpha therefore does not calculate scenario return from the live quote. How scenarios are presented

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-09-12

AI commentary

Sentiment remains cautious after the June late-stage failure and program termination, despite the August update defining several year-end milestones and runway into the third quarter of 2027. The packet provides no sufficient social coverage, options data, verified post-update analyst revisions or reliable target breadth; unavailable measures are not treated as neutral-to-positive evidence. With a negative deterministic directional prior and low coverage, NMRA remains a speculative monitoring position rather than a conviction recovery thesis.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-09-12

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-12-31eventNMRA-898 Phase 1 data in schizophreniaHigh impact

Neumora expects Phase 1 NMRA-898 data in the second half of 2026. Following the navacaprant failure, tolerability, pharmacokinetics and evidence supporting further development could materially reset confidence in the remaining CNS pipeline [#SEC-8K-2026-08-14].

2026-12-31eventNMRA-511 dose-expansion data and Phase 2 initiationHigh impact

Management plans to report higher-dose MAD expansion-cohort data in healthy elderly participants during the fourth quarter and initiate a Phase 2 study in Alzheimer's disease agitation by year-end. The early-stage nature of the evidence leaves substantial translation and execution risk [#SEC-8K-2026-08-14].

2026-12-31catalystNMRA-215 IND submission and Phase 1 startHigh impact

Favorable preclinical results support management's plan to submit an IND for NMRA-215 in obesity and cardiometabolic disease in the fourth quarter and begin Phase 1 by the end of 2026. Timely execution would broaden the post-navacaprant pipeline, but clinical validation remains distant [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-14] [#SEC-8K-2026-08-14].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-09-12 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology