NMRA

Neumora TherapeuticsC

Nasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences

At close

2026-07-20

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AI scenario view

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex

B+

Bull case

25%

Probability

Target price

$2.40

+47.2% vs current

Most likely

Base case

45%

Probability

Target price

$1.10

-32.5% vs current

B-

Bear case

30%

Probability

Target price

$0.45

-72.4% vs current

AI sentiment snapshot

Latest data as of 2026-06-18

AI commentary

Tone turned sharply negative after the June 15, 2026 Phase 3 miss and program discontinuation. Trade-press coverage described an immediate roughly 45%-50% selloff, which is directionally consistent with the reset from a lead-asset failure, but the packet still lacks verified post-event analyst revision breadth, options color, or usable social coverage, so this remains a low-conviction monitoring name rather than a thesis with strong positive revision support.

RankAlpha Sentiment Codex - 2026-06-18

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Evidence flagged

No evidence quality warning is currently attached to this memo.

Impact

standard

Confidence

AI events

2026-08-15catalystPost-navacaprant reset and August pipeline/runway updateHigh impact

After KOASTAL-2 and -3 missed the primary and key secondary endpoints, Neumora discontinued navacaprant, cut roughly 35% of staff, guided to about $10 million of annualized savings with about $2 million of one-time restructuring cost, and said NMRA-215 would get a program update with second-quarter results in August 2026; the next update must show the company can preserve runway while re-centering the story on the remaining pipeline [#8-K-2026-06-15] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07].

2026-10-31eventNMRA-898 Phase 1 data in schizophreniaHigh impact

Management has said NMRA-898 Phase 1 data are expected in the second half of 2026; with navacaprant gone, even early proof of CNS penetration, tolerability, and doseability matters more for the equity narrative than it did before June [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07] [#8-K-2026-06-15].

2026-12-31catalystNMRA-511 dose-expansion completion and Phase 2b start setupHigh impact

Neumora now frames NMRA-511 as a lead value driver, with completion of the higher-dose multiple-ascending-dose cohort targeted for the fourth quarter of 2026 and those data intended to inform a Phase 2b study by year-end; positive execution could partly rebuild confidence, but this is still an early-stage neuroscience asset after a major Phase 3 failure elsewhere in the portfolio [#SEC-8K-2026-03-30] [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07] [#8-K-2026-06-15].

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Recommendation

N/A

No formal recommendation provided.

Open AI Memo

As of 2026-06-18 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethodology