B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NMRA
Neumora TherapeuticsANasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The $1.04 share price reflects substantial damage from the failed late-stage depression program. Three remaining milestones are scheduled by year-end, while $116.8 million of cash and equivalents was expected to fund operations into the third quarter of 2027; credible early data and timely trial starts could therefore produce a sharp event-driven rerating [#SEC-8K-2026-08-14].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
An officer reported two open-market sales totaling 134,452 shares on August 20, 2026; transaction motivation is not provided and should not be treated as evidence about clinical results [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-21].
Momentum
98
Value
41
Sentiment
86
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.10 · Bull $2.25 · Bear $0.45Analysis 2026-09-12; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-11 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-12 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-11
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-11
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-11. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.67
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment86 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • An officer reported two open-market sales totaling 134,452 shares on August 20, 2026; transaction motivation is not provided and should not be treated as evidence about clinical results [#SEC-FORM4-2026-08-21].
- • Leadership transitioned to Joshua Pinto as CEO while Paul Berns became executive chair, adding execution risk during a major pipeline reset [#SEC-8K-2026-08-14].
- • Navacaprant's three pivotal MDD trial failures and discontinuation materially weakened development credibility, leaving value dependent on earlier-stage programs.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
NMRA-898 Phase 1 data in schizophrenia
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
86
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade A. Momentum 98.3 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 86.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-12. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-12 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$285.6M
Beta
-
Shares Out
187.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.45
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-28.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$127.52M
Current Ratio
4.50
As of 2026-09-11 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data