B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.40
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NMRA
Neumora TherapeuticsBNasdaq / Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The bullish case is now almost entirely balance-sheet-plus-optional-pipeline: management still points to runway into the third quarter of 2027, and NMRA-511, NMRA-898, and NMRA-215 together give the company multiple shots at rebuilding value if one of the remaining programs shows credible data [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07] [#8-K-2026-06-15].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
What can break
A June 10, 2026 loan amendment changed the interest-only period and introduced a minimum-liquidity covenant effective July 1, 2026, adding financing and covenant-monitoring risk if market cap or operational milestones weaken [#8-K-2026-06-15].
Momentum
98
Value
41
Sentiment
72
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.10 · Bull $2.40 · Bear $0.45Analysis 2026-06-18; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-06-18 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-10
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $6.67
Why
Momentum98 · Δ7d -
Value41 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment72 · Δ7d -
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • A June 10, 2026 loan amendment changed the interest-only period and introduced a minimum-liquidity covenant effective July 1, 2026, adding financing and covenant-monitoring risk if market cap or operational milestones weaken [#8-K-2026-06-15].
- • Cash runway is guided into the third quarter of 2027, but the equity story now depends on earlier-stage readouts from NMRA-511, NMRA-898, and NMRA-215, which carry typical small-cap biotech binary risk [#SEC-8K-2026-05-07] [#8-K-2026-06-15].
- • The bear case is that the company has lost its most advanced program after three late-stage MDD misses, has moved into a restructuring posture, and must now re-earn credibility with earlier-stage assets in difficult CNS indications; low coverage and missing verified post-event estimate revisions keep visibility poor.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-15
Post-navacaprant reset and August pipeline/runway update
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
98
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Value
41
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+0.1
Sentiment
72
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendTrend unavailable
Trend unavailable
Δ7d
-
Δ21d
-
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 98.3 / Value 41.2 / Sentiment 71.7
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-06-18. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$0.45
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-06-18 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$285.6M
Beta
-
Shares Out
187.9M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1.0
P/S (TTM)
-
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-1.45
Rev YoY
-
EPS YoY
-28.6%
Gross Margin
-
Op Margin
-
Net Debt
-$127.52M
Current Ratio
4.50
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data