B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NFLX
NetflixBNasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Netflix delivered 13% Q2 revenue growth, a 33.4% operating margin, healthy first-half viewing-hour growth, and continued pricing and advertising traction. Full-year revenue guidance was narrowed but maintained at $51.0-$51.4 billion with a 31.5% operating-margin target [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.4.
What can break
Content amortization growth pressured first-half operating leverage, and execution must support the expected second-half improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
Momentum
51
Value
58
Sentiment
68
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $94.32
Why
Momentum51 · Δ7d +7.0
Value58 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment68 · Δ7d +12.4
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +12.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Content amortization growth pressured first-half operating leverage, and execution must support the expected second-half improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
- • Q2 free cash flow declined to $1.525 billion from $2.267 billion in the prior-year quarter, increasing sensitivity to content spending and capital allocation [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
- • Q3 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion and 11.7% growth trailed the approximately $13 billion and 13% expectations reported in secondary earnings coverage.
Catalyst clock
2026-07-24
Post-print repricing and stabilization
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
51
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.0
Δ21d
+26.6
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
68
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+12.4
Δ21d
+3.7
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 51.4 / Value 58.2 / Sentiment 68.0
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$316.54B
Beta
1.71
Shares Out
4.16B
P/E (TTM)
38.2
P/S (TTM)
9.63
P/FCF (TTM)
46.61
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+11.1%
Gross Margin
+49.5%
Op Margin
+30.2%
Net Debt
$7.91B
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data