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NFLX

NetflixB
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Netflix delivered 13% Q2 revenue growth, a 33.4% operating margin, healthy first-half viewing-hour growth, and continued pricing and advertising traction. Full-year revenue guidance was narrowed but maintained at $51.0-$51.4 billion with a 31.5% operating-margin target [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.1.
What can break
Content amortization growth pressured first-half operating leverage, and execution must support the expected second-half improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
Momentum
50
Value
58
Sentiment
69
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $82.00 · Bull $105.00 · Bear $52.00Analysis 2026-07-21; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-07-21 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $94.32
Why
Momentum50 · Δ7d +6.5
Value58 · Δ7d -0.0
Sentiment69 · Δ7d +9.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Content amortization growth pressured first-half operating leverage, and execution must support the expected second-half improvement [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
  • • Q2 free cash flow declined to $1.525 billion from $2.267 billion in the prior-year quarter, increasing sensitivity to content spending and capital allocation [#SEC-8K-2026-07-16].
  • • Q3 revenue guidance of $12.86 billion and 11.7% growth trailed the approximately $13 billion and 13% expectations reported in secondary earnings coverage.

Catalyst clock

2026-07-24

Post-print repricing and stabilization

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
50
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+6.5
Δ21d
+26.8
Value
58
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.0
Δ21d
+1.1
Sentiment
69
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.1
Δ21d
-0.0
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 49.8 / Value 58.2 / Sentiment 68.9

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-07-21. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$105.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$82.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$52.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-07-21 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$316.54B
Beta
1.71
Shares Out
4.16B
P/E (TTM)
38.2
P/S (TTM)
9.63
P/FCF (TTM)
46.61
Rev YoY
+13.4%
EPS YoY
+11.1%
Gross Margin
+49.5%
Op Margin
+30.2%
Net Debt
$7.91B
Current Ratio
1.14
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data