B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$15.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NEWT
NewtekOneBNasdaq / Financial Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The best post-print evidence is operational: EPS held inside guidance, revenue and net interest income improved, deposits expanded sharply, and management added a 2027 EPS growth target while keeping 2026 guidance unchanged. Sparse sell-side coverage leaves room for upside if those operating trends persist.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
What can break
As a leveraged financial, NEWT remains sensitive to credit, liquidity, and execution missteps even when quarterly operating metrics look healthy.
Momentum
8
Value
63
Sentiment
70
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.50 · Bull $15.50 · Bear $11.00Analysis 2026-05-03; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-03 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $15.80
Why
Momentum8 · Δ7d +0.5
Value63 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment70 · Δ7d -0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.8.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • As a leveraged financial, NEWT remains sensitive to credit, liquidity, and execution missteps even when quarterly operating metrics look healthy.
- • Credit losses may rise as the loan book continues seasoning and management itself said the portfolio is still climbing the default curve.
- • The counterpoint is that this is still a low-coverage, small-cap financial with meaningful credit seasoning risk, elevated leverage optics, and a business model transition that still needs more quarters of proof.
Catalyst clock
2026-05-30
Post-earnings reset keeps 2026 outlook intact
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
8
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+0.5
Δ21d
-16.3
Value
63
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
+0.0
Sentiment
70
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.8
Δ21d
+7.0
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 8.3 / Value 63.2 / Sentiment 70.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-03. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$13.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$11.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-03 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$370.59M
Beta
1.32
Shares Out
28.88M
P/E (TTM)
5.3
P/S (TTM)
1.29
P/FCF (TTM) · Derived
-5.46
Rev YoY
-18.0%
EPS YoY
-8.8%
Gross Margin
+73.8%
Op Margin
+37.2%
Net Debt
$1.93B
Current Ratio
6.14
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data