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CloudflareF
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a still-strong underlying quarter: revenue rose 34% y/y to $639.8M, current RPO grew 34%, free cash flow improved to 13% of revenue, and liquidity remained strong at $4.16B [#8-K-2026-05-07]. If the workforce reset improves productivity without harming demand capture, the post-earnings de-rating could prove excessive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
What can break
Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Momentum
45
Value
44
Sentiment
25
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
35 · Non-qualifying
Next 2026-11-05 · AMC
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-29 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-29 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Earnings Setup
As of 2026-10-30 • RankAlpha AI
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-29

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-29. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $353.89
Why
Momentum45 · Δ7d -57.6
Value44 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment25 · Δ7d -1.4
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Earnings surprise screen
35Non-qualifying2026-11-05 amc
View setup

Cloudflare has a confirmed Nov 5 date and strong expected revenue growth, but checked sources did not establish a positive EPS revision/ESP or revenue upside beyond consensus. The stock's retrieved tape weakened sharply Oct 28–29 after an earlier surge; no qualifying close-location or 1.5x accumulation signal was verified, leaving no reliable pre-event surprise setup.

Screen as of 2026-10-30. Window 2026-10-30 to 2026-11-05.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-11-05 · AMC.
  • • Pre-earnings setup: 35 / non-qualifying.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.0.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
  • • Delayed post-earnings analyst revision data are not well surfaced in the packet, so there is limited confirmation that the Street has turned constructive after the selloff.
  • • The near-term read-through is still cautious: Q2 revenue guidance was only $664M-$665M, Reuters reported that was slightly below consensus, and the 20% workforce reduction plus $140M-$150M of charges raises the risk that the AI-first transition creates sales, hiring, and execution disruption before benefits show up [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Catalyst clock

2026-11-05 · AMC

Q1 beat was overshadowed by softer Q2 revenue guidance and a sharp post-print selloff

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
45
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-57.6
Δ21d
-62.0
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
0.0
Sentiment
25
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-1.4
Δ21d
+6.3
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 44.6 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 25.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-29
Market Cap
$110.49B
Beta
1.97
Shares Out
356.08M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1057.2
P/S (TTM)
34.39
P/FCF (TTM)
331.48
Rev YoY
+35.9%
EPS YoY
+230.4%
Gross Margin
+72.5%
Op Margin
-7.9%
Net Debt
-$592.29M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-10-29 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data