B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NET
CloudflareDNYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a still-strong underlying quarter: revenue rose 34% y/y to $639.8M, current RPO grew 34%, free cash flow improved to 13% of revenue, and liquidity remained strong at $4.16B [#8-K-2026-05-07]. If the workforce reset improves productivity without harming demand capture, the post-earnings de-rating could prove excessive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
What can break
Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Momentum
74
Value
44
Sentiment
32
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $342.96
Why
Momentum74 · Δ7d +4.1
Value44 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment32 · Δ7d +9.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +9.3.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
- • Delayed post-earnings analyst revision data are not well surfaced in the packet, so there is limited confirmation that the Street has turned constructive after the selloff.
- • The near-term read-through is still cautious: Q2 revenue guidance was only $664M-$665M, Reuters reported that was slightly below consensus, and the 20% workforce reduction plus $140M-$150M of charges raises the risk that the AI-first transition creates sales, hiring, and execution disruption before benefits show up [#8-K-2026-05-07].
Catalyst clock
2026-05-07
Q1 beat was overshadowed by softer Q2 revenue guidance and a sharp post-print selloff
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
74
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+4.1
Δ21d
-20.5
Value
44
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+4.8
Sentiment
32
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+9.3
Δ21d
+12.5
Why this grade
Composite grade D. Momentum 73.6 / Value 44.4 / Sentiment 32.3
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$109.32B
Beta
1.97
Shares Out
356.08M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1046.0
P/S (TTM)
34.39
P/FCF (TTM)
331.48
Rev YoY
+35.9%
EPS YoY
+230.4%
Gross Margin
+72.5%
Op Margin
-7.9%
Net Debt
-$592.29M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data