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CloudflareF
NYSE / Software & Services
Last Price
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Current thesis
Primary-source evidence supports a still-strong underlying quarter: revenue rose 34% y/y to $639.8M, current RPO grew 34%, free cash flow improved to 13% of revenue, and liquidity remained strong at $4.16B [#8-K-2026-05-07]. If the workforce reset improves productivity without harming demand capture, the post-earnings de-rating could prove excessive.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.
What can break
Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
Momentum
64
Value
44
Sentiment
17
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $210.00 · Bull $245.00 · Bear $175.00Analysis 2026-05-09; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-23 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-05-09 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-23

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-23. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade F · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $350.89
Why
Momentum64 · Δ7d -34.4
Value44 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment17 · Δ7d -5.7
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cloudflare's 10-K flags intense competition across CDN, DNS, cloud security, DDoS, and cloud-based point-solution categories, so the better direct peer set reinforces rather than reduces execution risk [#10-K-2026-02-26].
  • • Delayed post-earnings analyst revision data are not well surfaced in the packet, so there is limited confirmation that the Street has turned constructive after the selloff.
  • • The near-term read-through is still cautious: Q2 revenue guidance was only $664M-$665M, Reuters reported that was slightly below consensus, and the 20% workforce reduction plus $140M-$150M of charges raises the risk that the AI-first transition creates sales, hiring, and execution disruption before benefits show up [#8-K-2026-05-07].

Catalyst clock

2026-05-07

Q1 beat was overshadowed by softer Q2 revenue guidance and a sharp post-print selloff

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
64
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-34.4
Δ21d
-39.9
Value
44
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
17
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-5.7
Δ21d
+2.1
Why this grade

Composite grade F. Momentum 63.7 / Value 44.1 / Sentiment 17.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-05-09. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$245.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$210.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$175.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-05-09 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$115.99B
Beta
1.97
Shares Out
356.08M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-1109.8
P/S (TTM)
34.39
P/FCF (TTM)
331.48
Rev YoY
+35.9%
EPS YoY
+230.4%
Gross Margin
+72.5%
Op Margin
-7.9%
Net Debt
-$592.29M
Current Ratio
1.82
As of 2026-10-23 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data