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NCMI

National CineMediaC
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue momentum, stronger adjusted OIBDA, planned $11 million annualized savings, and potential Captivate diversification could support a rerating from the $2.22 anchor price.
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +16.1.
What can break
Advertising demand remains competitive and performance depends partly on theatrical box-office momentum.
Momentum
67
Value
54
Sentiment
51
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $1.95 · Bull $4.75 · Bear $1.35Analysis 2026-08-13; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-13 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.70
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d -12.3
Value54 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment51 · Δ7d +16.1
So what
Balanced signals (Net Neutral). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +16.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Advertising demand remains competitive and performance depends partly on theatrical box-office momentum.
  • • Analyst coverage and target-count data are unavailable, while the peer set is loose.
  • • The company remains loss-making, Q2 operating loss widened, advertising demand is competitive, the Captivate transaction carries execution risk, and recent insider sales reinforce a cautious stance.

Catalyst clock

2026-11-11

Captivate acquisition progress

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
67
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-12.3
Δ21d
-7.9
Value
54
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
51
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.1
Δ21d
+14.6
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 67.1 / Value 54.1 / Sentiment 50.6

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-13. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
15%
Probability
Target price
$4.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$1.95
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
40%
Probability
Target price
$1.35
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-13 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$256.81M
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
94.07M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-24.2
P/S (TTM)
1.60
P/FCF (TTM)
23.84
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
-7.2%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
-7.1%
Net Debt
-$14.8M
Current Ratio
1.84
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data