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NCMI

National CineMediaA
Nasdaq / Media & Entertainment
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 revenue rose 12.7% year over year to $58.4 million and adjusted OIBDA improved to $2.1 million from $0.7 million. Captivate adds office and residential inventory, while announced exhibitor agreements support cinema-network reach.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
What can break
Captivate integration and cross-selling benefits have not yet been demonstrated in reported combined-company results. [#PR-2026-09-21] Company release
Momentum
67
Value
60
Sentiment
60
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $2.00 · Bull $2.80 · Bear $1.10Analysis 2026-10-24; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-28
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-23 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-26 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-10-24 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-26

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-26. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade A · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $4.25
Why
Momentum67 · Δ7d -7.5
Value60 · Δ7d +2.5
Sentiment60 · Δ7d +16.1
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-28.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +2.5.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Captivate integration and cross-selling benefits have not yet been demonstrated in reported combined-company results. [#PR-2026-09-21] Company release
  • • Despite Q2 revenue growth, operating loss widened year over year; cinema advertising remains exposed to box-office and advertiser-demand variability. [#SEC-8K-2026-08-11] Q2 earnings exhibit
  • • Q2 operating loss widened to $12.8 million, and the completed acquisition adds substantial secured borrowing.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-28

Captivate integration and debt costs

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
67
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-7.5
Δ21d
-
Value
60
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+2.7
Sentiment
60
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.1
Δ21d
-
Why this grade

Composite grade A. Momentum 67.1 / Value 59.6 / Sentiment 59.5

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-10-24. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$2.80
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$2.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$1.10
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-10-24 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-23
Market Cap
$177.79M
Beta
1.40
Shares Out
94.07M
P/E (TTM) · Derived
-16.8
P/S (TTM)
1.60
P/FCF (TTM)
23.84
Rev YoY
+12.7%
EPS YoY
-7.2%
Gross Margin
+27.8%
Op Margin
-7.1%
Net Debt
-$14.8M
Current Ratio
1.84
As of 2026-10-26 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data