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NCLH

Norwegian Cruise LineD
NYSE / Consumer Services
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
Q2 profitability exceeded company guidance: Adjusted EBITDA was $666 million versus $632 million guided, Adjusted EPS was $0.48 versus $0.38, and constant-currency Net Yield declined 2.6% versus a 3.6% decline guided. The additional cost program and substantial May-June open-market purchases by the CEO and directors provide supporting—not operating—signals.
Posture
Defensive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
What can break
Cruise demand remains exposed to discretionary spending, geopolitical disruption, weather, fuel costs, and industry capacity additions.
Momentum
39
Value
52
Sentiment
50
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $14.50 · Bull $20.50 · Bear $9.50Analysis 2026-09-15; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Earnings
2026-10-29 · BMO
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-28 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-15 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-28

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-28. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade D · Defensive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $18.35
Why
Momentum39 · Δ7d +8.6
Value52 · Δ7d -0.1
Sentiment50 · Δ7d +0.3
So what
Weak posture (Net Neutral). Prioritize risk control and patience.

Confirming evidence

  • • Next scheduled catalyst: earnings 2026-10-29 · BMO.
  • • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -0.1.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Cruise demand remains exposed to discretionary spending, geopolitical disruption, weather, fuel costs, and industry capacity additions.
  • • Management says execution challenges are affecting demand generation and the revenue outlook; leadership and revenue-management changes remain early-stage.
  • • Revenue growth was capacity-driven while gross margin per Capacity Day fell 11.6%, Adjusted EBITDA declined 4.1%, and management acknowledged execution challenges affecting demand generation and revenue.

Catalyst clock

2026-10-29 · BMO

Q3 results must validate the reset operating outlook

Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
39
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+8.6
Δ21d
+28.7
Value
52
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
-0.1
Δ21d
-0.1
Sentiment
50
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.3
Δ21d
-6.4
Why this grade

Composite grade D. Momentum 39.4 / Value 52.3 / Sentiment 50.0

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-15. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$20.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$14.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.50
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-15 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$7.23B
Beta
2.07
Shares Out
459.19M
P/E (TTM)
17.2
P/S (TTM)
1.06
P/FCF (TTM)
12.25
Rev YoY
+4.9%
EPS YoY
+619.0%
Gross Margin
+31.8%
Op Margin
+15.8%
Net Debt
$15.33B
Current Ratio
0.20
As of 2026-10-28 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data