B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$19.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NATR
Nature's Sunshine ProductsBNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Margin expansion, 26% North American digital growth, Asia Pacific momentum, and auto-ship adoption could support a recovery if digital customers convert into recurring buyers and regional execution improves.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.2.
What can break
China weakness, North American direct-selling softness, and the Germany relaunch create regional execution risk [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-15].
Momentum
3
Value
67
Sentiment
76
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $15.25 · Bull $19.00 · Bear $10.75Analysis 2026-08-28; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-28 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-09
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum3 · Δ7d +0.1
Value67 · Δ7d 0.0
Sentiment76 · Δ7d +7.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +7.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China weakness, North American direct-selling softness, and the Germany relaunch create regional execution risk [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-15].
- • Full-year revenue guidance midpoint was reduced from $507.5 million to $495 million, while EBITDA guidance was below stored analyst estimates [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-08-15].
- • The earnings context indicates revenue and adjusted EPS misses, a lower full-year revenue midpoint, China weakness, and continued North American direct-selling softness.
Catalyst clock
2026-08-06
Mixed Q2 2026 earnings reset expectations
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
3
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
-0.6
Value
67
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
0.0
Δ21d
-0.3
Sentiment
76
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+7.2
Δ21d
-8.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 2.6 / Value 67.5 / Sentiment 76.2
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-28. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$15.25
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$10.75
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-28 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$258.65M
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
17.6M
P/E (TTM)
26.3
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
11.95
Rev YoY
+1.9%
EPS YoY
-31.4%
Gross Margin
+70.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
-$74.99M
Current Ratio
2.60
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data