B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$17.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
NATR
Nature's Sunshine ProductsBNasdaq / Household & Personal Products
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
Q2 sales grew 4% in constant currency, gross margin rose to 73.7%, and digital and auto-ship adoption improved. Cash was $82.5 million with no debt at June 30, offering capacity to fund execution [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Value
What changed
Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
What can break
China softness and currency pressure prompted lower 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
Momentum
10
Value
68
Sentiment
63
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $13.00 · Bull $17.00 · Bear $9.00Analysis 2026-09-30; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-10-27 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-10-27 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-09-30 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-10-27
Investment thesis
As of 2026-10-27
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-10-27. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $30.50
Why
Momentum10 · Δ7d -3.8
Value68 · Δ7d +0.4
Sentiment63 · Δ7d +0.8
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • Value remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • China softness and currency pressure prompted lower 2026 sales and adjusted EBITDA guidance [#SEC-8K-2026-08-06].
- • Digital, auto-ship and new-market investments may take longer than expected to produce durable earnings.
- • The full-year sales and EBITDA ranges were reduced, Q2 adjusted EBITDA was flat, and first-half operating cash flow turned negative.
Catalyst clock
2026-12-31
Reduced 2026 outlook delivery
Lead driver: Value · See fundamentals
Momentum
10
8% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-3.8
Δ21d
+3.3
Value
68
47% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
+0.2
Sentiment
63
45% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.8
Δ21d
-8.6
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 10.0 / Value 68.2 / Sentiment 62.8
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-09-30. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
45%
Probability
Target price
$13.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
30%
Probability
Target price
$9.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-09-30 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-10-27
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-10-27
Market Cap
$218.01M
Beta
0.96
Shares Out
17.6M
P/E (TTM)
26.3
P/S (TTM)
0.79
P/FCF (TTM)
11.95
Rev YoY
+1.9%
EPS YoY
-31.4%
Gross Margin
+70.4%
Op Margin
+6.0%
Net Debt
-$74.99M
Current Ratio
2.60
As of 2026-10-27 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data