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MYRG

MYR GroupB
Nasdaq / Capital Goods
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The post-earnings bull read is straightforward: MYR printed record Q1 net income, EBITDA, and backlog, with revenue up roughly 20% year over year and a likely EPS beat versus pre-report consensus near $2.02. The immediate stock reaction was positive, suggesting investors accepted the headline strength.
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.
What can break
At T+1, external analyst revision evidence is thin, so the durability of the earnings beat and whether consensus moves meaningfully higher remain unconfirmed.
Momentum
11
Value
57
Sentiment
78
Setup hits (3d)
0 · Net Neutral
AI TargetsBase $320.00 · Bull $360.00 · Bear $285.00Analysis 2026-04-29; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-09 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-04-29 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-09

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-09. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Neutral
Target $431.67
Why
Momentum11 · Δ7d -0.6
Value57 · Δ7d +0.1
Sentiment78 · Δ7d +6.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Neutral). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.

Confirming evidence

  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +6.2.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • At T+1, external analyst revision evidence is thin, so the durability of the earnings beat and whether consensus moves meaningfully higher remain unconfirmed.
  • • Gross-margin upside in Q1 was helped by favorable change orders, job closeout benefits, and projects nearing completion, which may be difficult to repeat.
  • • The bear read is that margin quality mattered more than the headline beat.

Catalyst clock

2026-04-30

Q1 earnings reset near-term expectations higher

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
11
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
-0.6
Δ21d
+4.5
Value
57
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.1
Δ21d
+2.1
Sentiment
78
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+6.2
Δ21d
+17.7
Why this grade

Composite grade B. Momentum 10.8 / Value 57.2 / Sentiment 78.4

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-04-29. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$360.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$320.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$285.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-04-29 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$5.31B
Beta
1.16
Shares Out
15.57M
P/E (TTM)
37.6
P/S (TTM)
1.03
P/FCF (TTM)
23.13
Rev YoY
+20.1%
EPS YoY
+86.5%
Gross Margin
+12.4%
Op Margin
+5.5%
Net Debt
-$46.65M
Current Ratio
1.40
As of 2026-09-09 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data