B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
MTDR
Matador ResourcesBNYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
Current thesis
The official Q2 release supports a constructive operating thesis: record oil production, higher full-year oil-growth guidance, stronger free cash flow, reserve growth, and debt repayment. Acquisitions could extend inventory and improve operating scale [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Constructive
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
What can break
Commodity-price volatility and weak gas-basis conditions can force volume shut-ins and pressure realized prices [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
80
Value
56
Sentiment
62
Setup hits (3d)
4 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $57.00 · Bull $69.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-08 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesisAs of 2026-09-08
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-08
Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-08. Definitions
Supporting evidence
What
Grade B · Constructive
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $69.00
Why
Momentum80 · Δ7d +16.9
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment62 · Δ7d -2.2
So what
Strength-led posture (Net Bullish). Favor watchlist adds and disciplined entries.
Confirming evidence
- • 4 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-09.
- • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta -2.2.
Contradictions & invalidation
- • Commodity-price volatility and weak gas-basis conditions can force volume shut-ins and pressure realized prices [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • Management's projected cost, productivity, and EUR benefits for acquired acreage are forward estimates rather than realized results [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
- • The only concrete analyst signal in the packet is pre-print: Zacks said its consensus EPS estimate had fallen 9.4% over the prior 30 days, with a -4.88% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-29].
Catalyst clock
2026-08-05
Q2 production outperformance and FY26 oil-guidance increase
Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
80
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
+16.9
Δ21d
+46.4
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
62
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendImproving
Δ7d
-2.2
Δ21d
-12.4
Why this grade
Composite grade B. Momentum 79.8 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 62.4
Scenario snapshot
Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)As of 2026-08-17
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.92B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
123.75M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
1.35
P/FCF (TTM)
7.80
Rev YoY
+26.8%
EPS YoY
+160.7%
Gross Margin
+45.7%
Op Margin
+35.6%
Net Debt
$3.47B
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-09-08 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data