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MTDR

Matador ResourcesC
NYSE / Energy
Last Price
Quote time unavailable
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Current thesis
The official Q2 release supports a constructive operating thesis: record oil production, higher full-year oil-growth guidance, stronger free cash flow, reserve growth, and debt repayment. Acquisitions could extend inventory and improve operating scale [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Posture
Mixed
Lead driver
Sentiment
What changed
5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
What can break
Commodity-price volatility and weak gas-basis conditions can force volume shut-ins and pressure realized prices [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
Momentum
85
Value
56
Sentiment
59
Setup hits (3d)
5 · Net Bullish
AI TargetsBase $57.00 · Bull $69.00 · Bear $41.00Analysis 2026-08-08; returns require an exact persisted reference.
Data freshness
Prices
Unavailable: Price unavailable
Fundamentals
As of 2026-08-17 • Vendor: Data Vendor v1
Scores
As of 2026-09-10 • Model: HYBRID_IC_RP
AI Memo
As of 2026-08-08 • Model: RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Investment thesis
As of 2026-09-10

Grade is the composite factor band; factor scores use a 0–100 scale. Confidence describes evidence quality, not a probability of return. Score date: 2026-09-10. Definitions

Supporting evidence
What
Grade C · Mixed
Confidence Medium · Net Bullish
Target $68.86
Why
Momentum85 · Δ7d +2.5
Value56 · Δ7d +0.0
Sentiment59 · Δ7d +0.4
So what
Balanced signals (Net Bullish). Wait for confirmation before sizing up.

Confirming evidence

  • • 5 setup hits (3d) with net bullish as of 2026-09-10.
  • • Sentiment remains the lead driver in the composite, 7D delta +0.4.

Contradictions & invalidation

  • • Commodity-price volatility and weak gas-basis conditions can force volume shut-ins and pressure realized prices [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • Management's projected cost, productivity, and EUR benefits for acquired acreage are forward estimates rather than realized results [#SEC-8K-2026-08-05].
  • • The only concrete analyst signal in the packet is pre-print: Zacks said its consensus EPS estimate had fallen 9.4% over the prior 30 days, with a -4.88% Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of 4 [#PR-EARNINGS-2026-07-29].

Catalyst clock

2026-08-05

Q2 production outperformance and FY26 oil-guidance increase

Lead driver: Sentiment · See AI snapshot
Momentum
85
9% active weight
Current posture
7d trendSoftening
Δ7d
+2.5
Δ21d
+50.9
Value
56
28% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.0
Δ21d
-1.3
Sentiment
59
62% active weight
Current posture
7d trendFlat
Δ7d
+0.4
Δ21d
-6.0
Why this grade

Composite grade C. Momentum 85.0 / Value 55.8 / Sentiment 58.7

Scenario snapshot

Scenario probability is memo-authored likelihood, not forecast certainty. Targets belong to the analysis dated 2026-08-08. Scenario method

B+
Bull case
25%
Probability
Target price
$69.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Most likely
B
Base case
50%
Probability
Target price
$57.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
B-
Bear case
25%
Probability
Target price
$41.00
Analysis reference price unavailable
Analysis 2026-08-08 · RankAlpha Sentiment Codex
Fundamentals (TTM)
As of 2026-08-17
Market Cap
$6.92B
Beta
1.14
Shares Out
123.75M
P/E (TTM)
6.6
P/S (TTM)
1.35
P/FCF (TTM)
7.80
Rev YoY
+26.8%
EPS YoY
+160.7%
Gross Margin
+45.7%
Op Margin
+35.6%
Net Debt
$3.47B
Current Ratio
0.65
As of 2026-09-10 • Updated nightlySource: Internal modelMethods & Data